2025/2026 Season Betting Analysis
Season Overview
In the 2025/2026 season, we analyzed 17 leagues, comprising a total of 6,274 fixtures and 5,134 signals. The aggregate performance across all markets showed the following results:
- Match Winner (MW): Backing all signals yielded 2,855 bets with an ROI of +0.79%, while selecting value-only signals resulted in 845 bets with an impressive ROI of +12.26%.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Backing all signals led to 3,172 bets with an ROI of -5.41%, whereas value-only signals resulted in 978 bets with an ROI of -8.63%.
- Over 2.5 Goals (O2.5): Backing all signals amounted to 3,176 bets with an ROI of -5.64%, while value-only signals resulted in 1,118 bets with an ROI of -4.53%.
I'm really happy with the overall Signals - 12%+ when backing the value selections is solid. That said, I am going to spend some time over the coming weeks tuning the v12 model that is used not only to validate the main signal, but also to provide the anchor for the BTTS and O2.5 percentages.
Signal Performance by League
| League | Home Signal Hit Rate | Away Signal Hit Rate |
|---------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|
| Premier League | 52.2% | 43.2% |
| Championship | 48.1% | 41.3% |
| League One | 58.3% | 43.3% |
| League Two | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| Bundesliga | 61.8% | 52.9% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 58.2% | 42.5% |
| La Liga | 62.1% | 39.3% |
| Segunda División | 55.8% | 49.5% |
| Serie A | 51.5% | 57.3% |
| Serie B | 58.7% | 41.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 57.7% | 43.9% |
| Ligue 2 | 48.4% | 43.2% |
| Eredivisie | 51.9% | 42.0% |
| Jupiler Pro League | 45.6% | 50.7% |
| Champions League | 65.2% | 47.7% |
| Europa League | 68.5% | 61.9% |
| Conference League | 63.6% | 49.5% |
Strongest Performers: Bundesliga and Champions League showed the highest home signal hit rates at 61.8% and 65.2%, respectively. Serie B and Eredivisie had the highest away signal hit rates at 57.3% and 50.7%.
Weakest Performers: La Liga and Ligue 1 showed the lowest home signal hit rates at 62.1% and 57.7%, respectively. Ligue 2 and Eredivisie had the lowest away signal hit rates at 43.2% and 42.0%.
Match Winner: Back All vs Value Only
Premier League
- Back All: 216 bets, ROI -19.42%
- Value Only: 64 bets, ROI -22.05%
Championship
- Back All: 258 bets, ROI -6.72%
- Value Only: 72 bets, ROI +17.33%
League One
- Back All: 258 bets, ROI +15.92%
- Value Only: 89 bets, ROI +24.74%
League Two
- Back All: 257 bets, ROI +8.37%
- Value Only: 70 bets, ROI +27.53%
Bundesliga
- Back All: 169 bets, ROI +1.45%
- Value Only: 47 bets, ROI -2.64%
2. Bundesliga
- Back All: 130 bets, ROI -5.56%
- Value Only: 27 bets, ROI -0.63%
La Liga
- Back All: 200 bets, ROI +0.06%
- Value Only: 80 bets, ROI -11.58%
Segunda División
- Back All: 207 bets, ROI +12.32%
- Value Only: 60 bets, ROI +35.15%
Serie A
- Back All: 198 bets, ROI +2.42%
- Value Only: 62 bets, ROI +0.65%
Serie B
- Back All: 198 bets, ROI +11.87%
- Value Only: 49 bets, ROI +23.61%
Ligue 1
- Back All: 148 bets, ROI -2.91%
- Value Only: 44 bets, ROI +9.66%
Ligue 2
- Back All: 114 bets, ROI -6.06%
- Value Only: 29 bets, ROI +24.59%
Eredivisie
- Back All: 138 bets, ROI -19.70%
- Value Only: 47 bets, ROI -33.34%
Jupiler Pro League
- Back All: 142 bets, ROI -7.62%
- Value Only: 47 bets, ROI +32.72%
Champions League
- Back All: 82 bets, ROI +17.43%
- Value Only: 26 bets, ROI +75.69%
Europa League
- Back All: 73 bets, ROI +15.33%
- Value Only: 20 bets, ROI +46.00%
Conference League
- Back All: 67 bets, ROI -9.18%
- Value Only: 12 bets, ROI +12.92%
Analysis: League One, League Two, and Segunda División showed significant ROI when backing all signals, making them worth targeting. In contrast, applying a value filter meaningfully helped in the Championship and Europa League.
BTTS Analysis
Premier League
- Back All: 211 bets, ROI -1.50%
- Value Only: 66 bets, ROI -4.70%
Championship
- Back All: 295 bets, ROI -3.40%
- Value Only: 102 bets, ROI -3.89%
League One
- Back All: 314 bets, ROI -5.16%
- Value Only: 150 bets, ROI -11.84%
League Two
- Back All: 305 bets, ROI -11.31%
- Value Only: 102 bets, ROI -10.43%
Bundesliga
- Back All: 173 bets, ROI +4.65%
- Value Only: 27 bets, ROI +4.81%
2. Bundesliga
- Back All: 153 bets, ROI -1.05%
- Value Only: 14 bets, ROI -2.21%
La Liga
- Back All: 208 bets, ROI +9.29%
- Value Only: 106 bets, ROI +0.30%
Segunda División
- Back All: 238 bets, ROI +6.02%
- Value Only: 94 bets, ROI +5.96%
Serie A
- Back All: 221 bets, ROI -15.14%
- Value Only: 132 bets, ROI -20.16%
Serie B
- Back All: 217 bets, ROI -7.59%
- Value Only: 82 bets, ROI -17.73%
Ligue 1
- Back All: 165 bets, ROI -13.39%
- Value Only: 12 bets, ROI -54.33%
Ligue 2
- Back All: 153 bets, ROI -9.39%
- Value Only: 12 bets, ROI -0.17%
Eredivisie
- Back All: 157 bets, ROI -3.52%
- Value Only: 6 bets, ROI +69.67%
Jupiler Pro League
- Back All: 156 bets, ROI -11.87%
- Value Only: 19 bets, ROI -24.37%
Champions League
- Back All: 80 bets, ROI -6.04%
- Value Only: 16 bets, ROI +8.50%
Europa League
- Back All: 81 bets, ROI -27.35%
- Value Only: 24 bets, ROI -19.88%
Conference League
- Back All: 45 bets, ROI -23.20%
- Value Only: 14 bets, ROI -31.00%
Analysis: Bundesliga and La Liga offer the most consistent BTTS edge. League One and Segunda División also showed positive ROI. Avoid BTTS betting in Serie A, Serie B, and the Conference League, as they showed significant losses.
Over 2.5 Analysis
Premier League
- Back All: 211 bets, ROI -8.35%
- Value Only: 68 bets, ROI -4.43%
Championship
- Back All: 295 bets, ROI -6.40%
- Value Only: 111 bets, ROI -9.22%
League One
- Back All: 314 bets, ROI -1.47%
- Value Only: 154 bets, ROI +0.72%
League Two
- Back All: 305 bets, ROI -8.45%
- Value Only: 124 bets, ROI -7.77%
Bundesliga
- Back All: 173 bets, ROI +0.73%
- Value Only: 21 bets, ROI +12.29%
2. Bundesliga
- Back All: 153 bets, ROI -7.27%
- Value Only: 26 bets, ROI -8.23%
La Liga
- Back All: 208 bets, ROI -1.58%
- Value Only: 108 bets, ROI +6.95%
Segunda División
- Back All: 239 bets, ROI +3.85%
- Value Only: 125 bets, ROI +1.68%
Serie A
- Back All: 224 bets, ROI -3.54%
- Value Only: 115 bets, ROI +0.17%
Serie B
- Back All: 218 bets, ROI -3.52%
- Value Only: 109 bets, ROI -4.01%
Ligue 1
- Back All: 165 bets, ROI -12.53%
- Value Only: 18 bets, ROI -36.00%
Ligue 2
- Back All: 153 bets, ROI -8.54%
- Value Only: 52 bets, ROI -12.29%
Eredivisie
- Back All: 157 bets, ROI -10.69%
- Value Only: 2 bets, ROI -12.50%
Jupiler Pro League
- Back All: 156 bets, ROI -7.39%
- Value Only: 27 bets, ROI -24.81%
Champions League
- Back All: 79 bets, ROI -6.84%
- Value Only: 15 bets, ROI -40.67%
Europa League
- Back All: 81 bets, ROI -26.10%
- Value Only: 31 bets, ROI -28.77%
Conference League
- Back All: 45 bets, ROI -9.29%
- Value Only: 12 bets, ROI +1.00%
Analysis: Bundesliga and League One showed positive ROI for over 2.5 goals. La Liga and Segunda División also performed well. Avoid over 2.5 betting in Serie A, Serie B, and the Conference League due to significant losses.
Where to Find Edge: League Recommendations
- Best Leagues for Home Signals: Bundesliga, Champions League, League One, League Two
- Best Leagues for Away Signals: Serie A, La Liga, Segunda División
- Best Leagues for BTTS Betting: Bundesliga, La Liga, League One, Segunda División
- Best Leagues for Over 2.5 Betting: Bundesliga, League One, La Liga, Segunda División
- Best Leagues for Value Betting Overall: Championship, Europa League, League One, League Two
Key Takeaways
- Home Signals: Bundesliga and Champions League offer the highest home signal hit rates.
- Away Signals: Serie A and La Liga have the highest away signal hit rates.
- BTTS Betting: Bundesliga and La Liga provide the most consistent BTTS edge.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Bundesliga and League One show the best ROI.
- Value Betting: Applying a value filter is most beneficial in the Championship and Europa League.