Where the model has them
Monza are projected to finish 17th in the Serie A this season, with a 37.74% chance of relegation. Their expected finishing position sits just above the drop zone at 15.9. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack multiplier of 0.77 (league average is 1.00) indicates an attack below the league average, whilst the defence multiplier of 1.24 (league average is 1.00, lower is better) suggests a defence that concedes more goals than the average. Their attacking Elo of 1561 and defending Elo of 1611 reflect a side newly promoted from the division below, relying on cross-league Elo for their strength assessments.
In attack
Monza's attack is below the league average, as shown by their attack multiplier of 0.77. Key attacking players include Andrea Petagna, who scored 9 goals in 30 appearances last season, and Patrick Cutrone, who had 48 shots in 35 games. Adam Bakoune provided 3 assists in 21 appearances. Despite these contributions, no player emerged as a high-volume scorer, with Petagna's 9 goals being the best in the squad. This lack of a proven goal-getter, coupled with an attack multiplier below 1.00, suggests Monza will struggle to score consistently this season.
In defence
Defensively, Monza's multiplier of 1.24 indicates they concede more goals than the league average. Key defensive players include Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, who averaged 4.47 defensive actions per 90 minutes, and Matteo Pessina, who won 55 tackles in 36 appearances. Despite these efforts, the defence multiplier highlights a potential soft spot for Monza. Their defensive Elo of 1611, whilst slightly better than their attacking Elo, still points to a unit that may struggle against stronger Serie A opposition.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor adjustments to Monza's attack and defence. The attack multiplier dropped slightly from 0.8 to 0.77 following the arrival of Jay Robinson, who scored 2 goals last season, and the departure of Paulo Azzi, who contributed 5 goals. Defensively, the arrival of Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, noted for his 70 defensive actions, helped lower the defence multiplier from 1.31 to 1.24. Azzi's departure impacted both ends of the pitch, as he was involved in defensive duties as well. These changes suggest a slight strengthening of the defence but no significant improvement in attack.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Monza's projection revolve around their below-average attack and slightly above-average defence. With no proven high-volume scorer and an attack multiplier of 0.77, they face a challenge in finding the net consistently. Their defence, whilst slightly improved, still concedes more than the average, as indicated by the defence multiplier of 1.24. Additionally, being newly promoted means much of their squad is unproven at this level, adding another layer of risk to their season. These factors combined point to a season where avoiding relegation will be their primary goal.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Andrea Petagna | 9 | 0.3 | 30% |
| Assists | Adam Bakoune | 3 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Patrick Cutrone | 48 | 1.37 | 69% |
| Tackles won | Matteo Pessina | 55 | 1.53 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Keita Baldé | 40 | 1.9 | 81% |
| Fouls committed | Andrea Carboni | 53 | 1.61 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | 4.47 | 23 |
| Andrea Carboni | 4.31 | 33 |
| Eddy Kouadio | 4.04 | 8 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Jay Robinson (2g), out Paulo Azzi (5g)
- Defence: in Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (70 def actions), out Paulo Azzi
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._