Season Overview

The 2025/2026 season of Ligue 2 has been an intriguing journey, with a total of 306 fixtures analysed. The overall signal hit rate across all fixtures was 47.6%, indicating a season where the models had a moderate success rate in predicting outcomes.

Signal Performance

The performance of signals varied significantly by star rating and type. Home signals were generally more accurate, with ★★★ signals achieving an 80.0% hit rate, followed by ★★ at 53.1% and ★ at 41.3%. Conversely, away signals had a lower overall accuracy, with ★★★ at 25.0%, ★★ at 40.5%, and ★ at 48.5%. The best performing signal type was the home ★★★, suggesting that high-confidence home signals were the most reliable.

Match Winner P&L

Betting on all available signals resulted in a negative return on investment (ROI) of -6.06%, with a P&L of -6.91 units from 114 bets. Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) improved the ROI to +24.59%, with a P&L of +7.13 units from 29 bets. This suggests that focusing on value bets provides a meaningful edge.

| Approach | Bets | Wins | Win Rate | P&L | ROI |

|------------------------------|------|------|----------|---------|----------|

| Back all signals | 114 | 52 | 45.6% | -6.91 | -6.06% |

| Value bets only | 29 | 12 | 41.4% | +7.13 | +24.59% |

BTTS by Probability Bracket

The actual rate for Both Teams to Score (BTTS) was 50.7%, slightly above the V12 model average of 48.6%. The performance varied by probability bracket, with the highest ROI in the 55-60% bracket at 83.0% when backing value bets only.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|-------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 33 | 51.5%| 33 | -0.54 | -1.6% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 54 | 46.3%| 54 | -7.96 | -14.7% | 2 | +0.20 | 10.0% |

| 50-55% | 52 | 51.9%| 52 | -3.81 | -7.3% | 9 | -1.05 | -11.7% |

| 55-60% | 14 | 50.0%| 14 | -2.05 | -14.6% | 1 | +0.83 | 83.0% |

| Total | 153 | | 153 | -14.36 | -9.4% | 12 | -0.02 | -0.2% |

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

The actual rate for Over 2.5 goals was 47.1%, closely matching the V12 model average of 46.8%. Similar to BTTS, the 55-60% bracket showed the highest ROI at 4.2% when backing value bets only.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|-------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 61 | 41.0%| 61 | -7.65 | -12.5% | 11 | -3.30 | -30.0% |

| 45-50% | 45 | 46.7%| 45 | -4.95 | -11.0% | 16 | -0.42 | -2.6% |

| 50-55% | 31 | 48.4%| 31 | -1.85 | -6.0% | 16 | -3.05 | -19.1% |

| 55-60% | 16 | 62.5%| 16 | +1.39 | 8.7% | 9 | +0.38 | 4.2% |

| Total | 153 | | 153 | -13.06 | -8.5% | 52 | -6.39 | -12.3% |

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG). Estac Troyes led with a 18.03 goal surplus, followed by Dunkerque with a 13.10 goal surplus. On the flip side, Bastia and Laval under-performed, scoring significantly less than their xG suggested.

Players to Follow

Key players to watch next season include Keito Nakamura, Tawfik Bentayeb, and Louis Mafouta. These players demonstrated high shot efficiency and goal-scoring ability, making them valuable assets for any team.

Key Takeaways