Ligue 1 2025/2026 End-of-Season Analysis
Season Overview
This season's Ligue 1 campaign saw a total of 310 fixtures analysed, with 266 fixtures featuring valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate for the season stood at 57.7%, indicating a season with mixed performance from our predictive models.
Signal Performance
The performance of our signals varied significantly based on their star ratings and match types. Home signals were the most successful, particularly those rated with three stars, achieving an 86.1% hit rate from 36 bets. Away signals, however, lagged behind, with the highest accuracy coming from three-star signals at 70.6% from 17 bets.
- Home signals:
- ★★★: 31 wins from 36 bets (86.1%)
- ★★: 41 wins from 74 bets (55.4%)
- ★: 25 wins from 58 bets (43.1%)
- Away signals:
- ★★★: 12 wins from 17 bets (70.6%)
- ★★: 27 wins from 61 bets (44.3%)
- ★: 4 wins from 20 bets (20.0%)
Match Winner P&L
The two approaches to betting on match winners provided contrasting outcomes. Betting on every signal with available odds resulted in a loss, with a P&L of -4.31 units and an ROI of -2.91%. Filtering for value bets (edge > 0) showed a more positive outcome, with a P&L of +4.25 units and an ROI of +9.66%.
- Backing all signals:
- Bets: 148
- Wins: 73 (49.3%)
- P&L: -4.31 units
- ROI: -2.91%
- Value bets only:
- Bets: 44
- Wins: 14 (31.8%)
- P&L: +4.25 units
- ROI: +9.66%
Filtering for value bets clearly added meaningful edge, turning a losing strategy into a profitable one.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
The performance of BTTS (Both Teams To Score) bets varied across different probability brackets. The overall actual rate was 49.7%, slightly below the V12 model average of 50.1%.
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 27 | 59.3%| 27 | +2.00 | 7.4% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 59 | 52.5%| 59 | -5.66 | -9.6% | 0 | - | - |
| 50-55% | 53 | 35.8%| 52 | -19.82 | -38.1% | 8 | -6.05 | -75.6% |
| 55-60% | 25 | 68.0%| 25 | +1.95 | 7.8% | 4 | -0.47 | -11.8% |
| 60-65% | 2 | 50.0%| 2 | -0.56 | -28.0% | 0 | - | - |
| TOTALS | 165 | | 165 | -22.09 | -13.4% | 12 | -6.52 | -54.3% |
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
The performance of Over 2.5 goals bets also varied across different probability brackets. The overall actual rate was 51.6%, slightly above the V12 model average of 49.9%.
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 38 | 44.7%| 38 | -5.30 | -13.9% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 49 | 46.9%| 49 | -10.01 | -20.4% | 5 | -2.75 | -55.0% |
| 50-55% | 42 | 45.2%| 41 | -8.40 | -20.5% | 7 | -3.00 | -42.9% |
| 55-60% | 26 | 73.1%| 26 | +2.01 | 7.7% | 4 | -2.20 | -55.0% |
| 60-65% | 10 | 80.0%| 10 | +2.02 | 20.2% | 2 | +1.47 | 73.5% |
| 65-70% | 1 | 0.0% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% | 0 | - | - |
| TOTALS | 165 | | 165 | -20.68 | -12.5% | 18 | -6.48 | -36.0% |
Team Analysis
Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG):
- Monaco: 59 goals, xG 39.8 (+19.16 vs model)
- Marseille: 60 goals, xG 46.1 (+13.88 vs model)
- Paris Saint Germain: 74 goals, xG 61.2 (+12.75 vs model)
- Strasbourg: 58 goals, xG 45.9 (+12.11 vs model)
- Lens: 66 goals, xG 54.2 (+11.76 vs model)
On the flip side, some teams under-performed:
- Angers: 29 goals, xG 35.9 (-6.94 vs model)
- Nantes: 29 goals, xG 33.9 (-4.86 vs model)
- Metz: 31 goals, xG 35.4 (-4.37 vs model)
The model's signal hit rates were notably high for Paris Saint Germain (73.3%) and Lens (67.9%).
Players to Follow
Several standout performers in terms of goal scoring and assists were observed:
- Top Scorers:
- Esteban Lepaul (Rennes): 21 goals, 37/64 shots on target
- Mason Greenwood (Marseille): 16 goals, 45/81 shots on target
- Joaquin Panichelli (Strasbourg): 16 goals, 31/51 shots on target
- Top Assisters:
- Ludovic Ajorque (Stade Brestois 29): 9 assists
- Adrien Thomasson (Lens): 9 assists
- Endrick (Lyon): 7 assists
Players to Watch:
- Mason Greenwood (Marseille): 45/81 on target, 16 goals
- Lassine Sinayoko (Auxerre): 38/67 on target, 12 goals
- Esteban Lepaul (Rennes): 37/64 on target, 21 goals
Key Takeaways
- Home signals were significantly more accurate than away signals, with three-star signals performing the best.
- Filtering for value bets improved overall profitability, indicating that not all signals are created equal.
- Over 2.5 goals bets performed better in higher probability brackets, especially in the 60-65% bracket.
- Teams like Monaco and Marseille over-performed relative to their expected goals, providing potential value in future betting.
This season's data provides valuable insights for refining betting strategies moving forward. Focus on high-star signals and value bets to improve profitability.