Where the model has them
The model projects Lecce to finish 19th in the 2026-27 season, with a 51.40% chance of relegation. The expected finishing position is 17.0, but the single most likely individual position is 20th. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.59, which is below the league average of 1.00, and their defence multiplier of 1.07, which is slightly above average (lower is better). Their attacking Elo is 1489 and defending Elo is 1641, both of which contribute to their overall positioning in the projected table.
In attack
Lecce's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.59. Their top scorer last season was Omri Gandelman with 9 goals, followed by Lameck Banda with 5 goals and 4 assists, and Willem Geubbels with 5 goals. Geubbels also led in shot volume with 26 shots in 23 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a significant weakness. The model sees this as a key factor in their projected position.
In defence
On the defensive side, Lecce's defence multiplier is 1.07, indicating a slightly leakier defence than average. Their top defensive-actions leaders were Danilo Veiga with 4.26 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Oumar Ngom with 4.04, and Santiago Pierotti with 3.72. Whilst these numbers show some solid defensive efforts, the model rates their defence as a soft spot, contributing to their overall projected position.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes, but they did not materially alter the model's projections. Offensively, the arrival of Omri Gandelman (9 goals last season) balanced the departure of Walid Cheddira (4 goals), keeping the attack multiplier static at 0.59. Defensively, the addition of Youssef Maleh (55 defensive actions) slightly improved the defence multiplier from 1.13 to 1.07, but this was offset by the departure of Ylber Ramadani. Overall, the changes were marginal and did not significantly impact the model's view of Lecce's season.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Lecce's projection revolve around their below-average attack and slightly above-average defence. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack multiplier of 0.59 suggest they will struggle to put enough goals on the board. Coupled with a defence that, whilst not terrible, is still rated as leakier than average, these factors combine to make relegation a significant risk at 51.40%. The model sees these as the primary weaknesses that will likely drive their finish in the lower regions of the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Willem Geubbels | 5 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Assists | Lameck Banda | 4 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Willem Geubbels | 26 | 1.13 | 74% |
| Tackles won | Danilo Veiga | 97 | 2.69 | 97% |
| Fouls drawn | Lameck Banda | 49 | 1.53 | 84% |
| Fouls committed | Santiago Pierotti | 67 | 1.81 | 78% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Danilo Veiga | 4.26 | 36 |
| Oumar Ngom | 4.04 | 15 |
| Santiago Pierotti | 3.72 | 37 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Omri Gandelman (9g), out Walid Cheddira (4g)
- Defence: in Youssef Maleh (55 def actions), out Ylber Ramadani
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._