Season Overview
The 2025/2026 League One season was a rollercoaster for BetSignals subscribers, with a total of 557 fixtures analysed, yielding 452 fixtures with valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate stood at 58.3%, indicating a generally reliable predictive performance by our models.
Signal Performance
The breakdown of signal performance by location and star rating reveals some interesting trends. Home signals were the most accurate, with ★★★ signals achieving a 66.7% hit rate, followed by ★★ at 67.2% and ★ at 49.3%. Draw signals had a notably lower hit rate of 33.3%. Away signals performed less consistently, with ★★★ signals at 60.0%, ★★ at 49.3%, and ★ at 33.9%. Overall, home signals outperformed away signals, with ★★★ signals providing the highest accuracy across both home and away matches.
Match Winner P&L
In our approach to match winner betting, we evaluated two strategies: backing every signal and backing only value bets (edge > 0).
Backing Every Signal
- Bets: 258
- Wins: 145 (56.2%)
- P&L: +41.07 units
- ROI: +15.92%
Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)
- Bets: 89
- Wins: 41 (46.1%)
- P&L: +22.02 units
- ROI: +24.74%
Filtering to value bets added meaningful edge, as evidenced by the higher ROI of 24.74% compared to 15.92% for all signals. This suggests that selective betting based on edge can be a profitable strategy.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 4 | 0.0% | 4 | -4.00 | -100.0% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 40 | 52.5%| 40 | +0.05 | 0.1% | 7 | -2.52 | -36.0% |
| 50-55% | 93 | 51.6%| 93 | -5.25 | -5.6% | 32 | +0.22 | 0.7% |
| 55-60% | 108 | 57.4%| 108 | +0.64 | 0.6% | 63 | -5.63 | -8.9% |
| 60-65% | 56 | 51.8%| 56 | -7.96 | -14.2% | 35 | -10.15 | -29.0% |
| 65-70% | 12 | 66.7%| 12 | +1.32 | 11.0% | 12 | +1.32 | 11.0% |
| 70%+ | 1 | 0.0% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Total| 314 | 52.2%| 314 | -16.20 | -5.2% | 150 | -17.76 | -11.8% |
The actual BTTS rate was 52.2%, slightly below the V12 model average of 55.9%.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 35 | 37.1%| 35 | -8.57 | -24.5% | 4 | -1.50 | -37.5% |
| 45-50% | 56 | 51.8%| 56 | +0.55 | 1.0% | 16 | -0.37 | -2.3% |
| 50-55% | 102 | 52.9%| 102 | +3.31 | 3.2% | 52 | +4.35 | 8.4% |
| 55-60% | 75 | 57.3%| 75 | +3.11 | 4.1% | 48 | +1.89 | 3.9% |
| 60-65% | 32 | 56.3%| 32 | -1.54 | -4.8% | 20 | -1.79 | -8.9% |
| 65-70% | 12 | 58.3%| 12 | +0.53 | 4.4% | 12 | +0.53 | 4.4% |
| 70%+ | 2 | 0.0% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% | 2 | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Total| 314 | 50.6%| 314 | -4.61 | -1.5% | 154 | +1.11 | 0.7% |
The actual Over 2.5 rate was 50.6%, below the V12 model average of 53.4%.
Team Analysis
Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG):
Over-performers
- Cardiff: 90 goals, xG 67.9 (+22.05 vs model), 27W/10D across 46 fixtures
- Lincoln: 89 goals, xG 69.3 (+19.66 vs model), 31W/10D across 46 fixtures
- Huddersfield: 74 goals, xG 59.0 (+14.97 vs model), 18W/13D across 46 fixtures
- Wycombe: 69 goals, xG 54.7 (+14.31 vs model), 17W/12D across 46 fixtures
- Bolton: 76 goals, xG 63.3 (+12.72 vs model), 22W/18D across 49 fixtures
Conversely, some teams under-performed:
Under-performers
- Port Vale: 36 goals, xG 43.6 (-7.65 vs model), 10W/12D across 46 fixtures
- Northampton: 39 goals, xG 43.2 (-4.18 vs model), 9W/8D across 46 fixtures
- Rotherham: 41 goals, xG 43.7 (-2.66 vs model), 10W/11D across 46 fixtures
Lincoln had the highest signal hit rate at 71.4%, while Port Vale had the lowest at 66.7%.
Players to Follow
Several players stood out for their goal-scoring and assist contributions:
Top Scorers
- Dominic Ballard (Leyton Orient): 22 goals, 37/66 shots on target
- Kyle Wootton (Stockport County): 19 goals, 41/77 shots on target
- Jayden Wareham (Exeter City): 18 goals, 39/75 shots on target
Top Assisters
- Reyes Cleary (Barnsley): 13 assists
- Ollie Tanner (Cardiff): 12 assists
- Lewis Wing (Reading): 11 assists, 11 goals
Players to Watch
- Lorent Tolaj (Plymouth): 43/89 on target, 17 goals
- Jamie Reid (Stevenage): 42/69 on target, 14 goals
- Kyle Wootton (Stockport County): 41/77 on target, 19 goals
Key Takeaways
- Home signals were more accurate than away signals, with ★★★ signals providing the highest accuracy.
- Filtering to value bets (edge > 0) increased ROI from 15.92% to 24.74%.
- The actual BTTS rate (52.2%) was below the model average (55.9%).
- Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals, providing value for bettors.
- Key players like Dominic Ballard, Kyle Wootton, and Lorent Tolaj are worth tracking for the next season.