Ligue 1 | Saturday, 22 August 2026 | 18:45 GMT
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Le Mans
Le Mans has a home record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 home games. They scored 10 goals and conceded 2. The individual scorelines were: 1-1, 1-0, 4-0, 3-0, and 1-1. Overall, across their last 10 games, they have 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 19 goals and conceding 8.
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 has an away record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 away games. They scored 1 goal and conceded 11. The individual scorelines were: 0-1, 0-4, 1-1, 0-3, and 0-2. Overall, across their last 10 games, they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses, scoring 11 goals and conceding 21.
What the Numbers Say
The model rates Le Mans at 64% likelihood to win this fixture, making it the standout accumulator leg today. The home, draw, and away win probabilities are 63.8%, 19.3%, and 16.6% respectively. Le Mans' strong home form and Stade Brestois 29's poor away record drive this likelihood. The model's expected goals (sG) for Le Mans is 2.21, compared to 1.01 for Stade Brestois 29, reinforcing the home advantage.
The market price for a Le Mans win is 2.50, whilst the model's fair odds are 1.57. This gives a two-star value rating, meaning there is modest home value. The price offers a 59.5% edge over the model's fair odds. Note that whilst the likelihood is high, the value is modest. The game is projected to be fairly open, with a 48% chance of both teams scoring and a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals. BetSignals surfaces these numbers for your analysis; the decision is yours.
Player Intelligence
Le Mans has a player with a shots per 90 rate of 3.112, the highest across both squads. Stade Brestois 29's top player for shots per 90 is at 1.899. For tackles, Le Mans again leads with a rate of 3.051, compared to Stade Brestois 29's 2.658. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals and get more data for your own analysis.