Season Overview
The 2025/2026 La Liga season featured a total of 380 fixtures, with 312 fixtures yielding valid model signals for analysis. The overall signal hit rate across all fixtures was 62.1%.
Signal Performance
The performance of our signals was analyzed across home, draw, and away outcomes, categorized by their star ratings (★★★, ★★, ★). Home signals showed the highest accuracy, with ★★★ signals achieving an 80.0% hit rate, followed by ★★ signals at 58.9% and ★ signals at 60.3%. Away signals had a lower overall accuracy, with ★★★ signals at 46.2%, ★★ signals at 43.2%, and ★ signals at 25.0%. The best-performing signals were the ★★★ home signals, followed closely by ★★ home signals.
Match Winner P&L
We evaluated two approaches for match winner betting: backing every signal with available odds and selecting only value bets (edge > 0).
Backing Every Signal
- Bets: 200
- Win Rate: 50.0%
- P&L: +0.13 units
- ROI: +0.06%
Value Bets Only
- Bets: 80
- Win Rate: 27.5%
- P&L: -9.26 units
- ROI: -11.58%
Filtering for value bets did not provide a meaningful edge, as the P&L and ROI were significantly lower compared to backing every signal.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
The performance of BTTS (Both Teams To Score) bets was analyzed across various probability brackets. Here is the breakdown:
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 7 | 71.4% | 7 | +3.90 | 55.7% | 2 | +0.30 | 15.0% |
| 45-50% | 25 | 60.0% | 25 | +4.50 | 18.0% | 7 | -1.99 | -28.4% |
| 50-55% | 61 | 65.6% | 61 | +12.39 | 20.3% | 26 | +2.31 | 8.9% |
| 55-60% | 60 | 51.7% | 60 | -4.70 | -7.8% | 35 | -1.21 | -3.5% |
| 60-65% | 40 | 62.5% | 40 | +2.21 | 5.5% | 27 | -0.38 | -1.4% |
| 65-70% | 14 | 64.3% | 14 | +0.67 | 4.8% | 9 | +1.29 | 14.3% |
| 70%+ | 1 | 100% | 1 | +0.36 | 36.0% | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| Total | 208 | | 208 | +19.33 | 9.3% | 106 | +0.32 | 0.3% |
The actual BTTS rate was 56.1%, closely matching the V12 model average of 55.9%.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
The performance of Over 2.5 goals bets was analyzed across various probability brackets. Here is the breakdown:
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|---------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 26 | 42.3% | 26 | -0.44 | -1.7% | 10 | +0.60 | 6.0% |
| 45-50% | 45 | 51.1% | 45 | +3.57 | 7.9% | 25 | +5.53 | 22.1% |
| 50-55% | 47 | 48.9% | 47 | -2.66 | -5.7% | 25 | +0.16 | 0.6% |
| 55-60% | 44 | 47.7% | 44 | -5.26 | -12.0% | 28 | -1.50 | -5.4% |
| 60-65% | 30 | 66.7% | 30 | +3.80 | 12.7% | 18 | +2.99 | 16.6% |
| 65-70% | 12 | 58.3% | 12 | -2.34 | -19.5% | 2 | -0.27 | -13.5% |
| 70%+ | 4 | 75.0% | 4 | +0.05 | 1.3% | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| Total | 208 | | 208 | -3.28 | -1.6% | 108 | +7.51 | 7.0% |
The actual Over 2.5 goals rate was 49.7%, slightly below the V12 model average of 53.8%.
Team Analysis
Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG):
- Over-performers:
- Villarreal: 72 goals, xG 41.0 (+31.01 vs model), 22W/6D across 38 fixtures
- Barcelona: 95 goals, xG 70.4 (+24.60 vs model), 31W/1D across 38 fixtures
- Real Madrid: 76 goals, xG 65.5 (+10.52 vs model), 27W/5D across 38 fixtures
- Real Sociedad: 59 goals, xG 51.8 (+7.21 vs model), 11W/13D across 38 fixtures
- Real Betis: 59 goals, xG 53.2 (+5.76 vs model), 15W/15D across 38 fixtures
Conversely, some teams under-performed:
- Under-performers:
- Rayo Vallecano: 41 goals, xG 53.6 (-12.65 vs model), 12W/14D across 38 fixtures
- Oviedo: 26 goals, xG 36.6 (-10.63 vs model), 6W/11D across 38 fixtures
- Getafe: 32 goals, xG 36.7 (-4.66 vs model), 15W/6D across 38 fixtures
Signal Hit Rates by Team:
- Barcelona: 31/37 signals correct (83.8%)
- Villarreal: 10/12 signals correct (83.3%)
- Real Madrid: 24/33 signals correct (72.7%)
- Atletico Madrid: 20/31 signals correct (64.5%)
- Getafe: 4/7 signals correct (57.1%)
- Espanyol: 7/13 signals correct (53.8%)
- Real Betis: 13/26 signals correct (50.0%)
- Sevilla: 6/12 signals correct (50.0%)
Players to Follow
Based on shot creation, efficiency, and underlying numbers, here are the top players to watch for the next season:
1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): 61/106 on target, 25 goals, 31 apps
2. Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca): 50/93 on target, 23 goals, 37 apps
3. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid): 43/72 on target, 16 goals, 35 apps
4. Ante Budimir (Osasuna): 41/88 on target, 17 goals, 37 apps
5. Toni Martínez (Alaves): 36/74 on target, 14 goals, 37 apps
6. Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad): 36/62 on target, 15 goals, 34 apps
Key Takeaways
- Home signals performed significantly better than away signals, with a 62.1% hit rate compared to 39.3%.
- Backing every signal provided a small positive ROI of 0.06%, while filtering for value bets resulted in a negative ROI of -11.58%.
- BTTS bets in the <45% probability bracket showed the highest ROI at 55.7%.
- Over 2.5 goals bets in the 60-65% probability bracket provided the best ROI at 16.6% when selecting only value bets.
- Teams like Barcelona and Villarreal significantly over-performed relative to their xG, while Rayo Vallecano and Oviedo under-performed.
- Players like Kylian Mbappé, Vedat Muriqi, and Vinícius Júnior demonstrated excellent shot efficiency and goal-scoring ability, making them key players to watch next season.