Where the model has them
The model has Karlsruher SC finishing around 14th in the 2. Bundesliga next season. The probabilities show a 0.39% chance of winning the league, a 6.10% chance of finishing in the top four, and an 18.84% chance of relegation. Expected points are 42.7. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, as well as the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.08 (1.00 is the league average, so higher means a stronger attack) and the defence multiplier is 1.24 (1.00 is average, lower is better for defence). The attacking Elo is 1558 and the defending Elo is 1478.
In attack
The attacking picture for Karlsruher SC is just above average with a strength multiplier of 1.08. Marvin Wanitzek is the key player here, contributing 14 goals and 5 assists in 33 appearances last season. He also took 66 shots, showing his significant involvement in the team's offensive play. Other top scorers in the squad include Louey Ben Farhat with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Shio Fukuda with 5 goals. Whilst the attack isn't weak, it's not a standout strength either.
In defence
Defensively, Karlsruher SC is slightly below average with a defence multiplier of 1.24. The leaders in defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, blocks per 90) are Andreas Müller with 4.69, Paul Scholl with 4.47, and Christoph Kobald with 3.96. Despite these efforts, the model rates their defence as leakier than average, which is a concern.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal change in the model's numbers for Karlsruher SC. The attack multiplier stayed the same at 1.08, whilst the defence multiplier improved slightly from 1.29 to 1.24. The key attacking arrival was Santeri Väänänen, who scored 1 goal last season. The notable departure was Fabian Schleusener, who scored 11 goals. On the defensive side, Hyeok-kyu Kwon arrived and contributed 42 defensive actions, whilst David Herold left. These changes had a marginal impact on the model's projections.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weakness the model sees for Karlsruher SC is their below-average defence, rated leakier than the league average. This defensive frailty is the primary risk to their projected mid-table finish. If they can't tighten up at the back, they could find themselves battling relegation rather than comfortably sitting in the lower half of the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Marvin Wanitzek | 14 | 0.42 | 30% |
| Assists | Marvin Wanitzek | 5 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Marvin Wanitzek | 66 | 2 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Santeri Väänänen | 17 | 1.7 | 90% |
| Fouls drawn | Lilian Egloff | 17 | 1.13 | 73% |
| Fouls committed | Santeri Väänänen | 12 | 1.2 | 80% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Andreas Müller | 4.69 | 22 |
| Paul Scholl | 4.47 | 12 |
| Christoph Kobald | 3.96 | 25 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Santeri Väänänen (1g), out Fabian Schleusener (11g)
- Defence: in Hyeok-kyu Kwon (42 def actions), out David Herold
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._