Where the model has them
The model projects Juventus to finish 4th, with a 4.52% chance of clinching the title and a 42.92% probability of securing a top-four spot. Their relegation risk is minimal at 0.03%. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.17 and a defence multiplier of 0.73. These multipliers place Juventus slightly above average in attack and well below average in defence. Their attacking Elo is 1655, whilst their defensive Elo stands at 1728, reflecting a solid but not spectacular defensive unit.
In attack
Juventus's attack, whilst above average, isn't the powerhouse it once was. The attack strength multiplier of 1.17 indicates they're 17% stronger than the league average, but this is a drop from last season's 1.26. Kenan Yıldız was the standout last season, contributing 11 goals and 9 assists across 45 appearances. His 81 shots show he's a key player in their offensive setup. Other top scorers include Weston McKennie with 9 goals and 6 assists, and Jonathan David with 8 goals and 5 assists. Despite these contributions, Juventus lacks a high-volume scorer, which is a concern for their attacking output.
In defence
Defensively, Juventus are stronger than most, with a defence multiplier of 0.73. This means they concede 27% fewer goals than the average Serie A team. Manuel Locatelli leads the way in tackles won, with 123 across 44 appearances. His defensive-actions rate of 5.08 per 90 minutes is impressive. Douglas Luiz and Juan Cabal also contribute significantly on the defensive end, with rates of 4.03 and 3.58 per 90 minutes, respectively. This solid defensive unit is a key strength for Juventus.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some notable changes. Offensively, the arrival of Randal Kolo Muani, who scored 5 goals last season, slightly offsets the loss of Dušan Vlahović, who netted 10 goals. This shift resulted in the attack multiplier dropping from 1.26 to 1.17. Defensively, Zeki Çelik joined, bringing 127 defensive actions to the table, whilst Filip Kostić departed. This tweak nudged the defence multiplier from 0.76 to 0.73, slightly strengthening their backline.
Weaknesses and risks
The model identifies two main weaknesses for Juventus this season. Firstly, they lack a proven high-volume scorer, with Kenan Yıldız's 11 goals last season being their best output. Secondly, the net attacking output decreased with the departure of Dušan Vlahović, who scored 10 goals. These factors, combined with their slightly above-average attack and solid defence, present a risk to their top-four projection. If their attack fails to step up, their defensive solidity might not be enough to secure a Champions League spot.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Kenan Yıldız | 11 | 0.24 | 22% |
| Assists | Kenan Yıldız | 9 | 0.2 | 18% |
| Shots | Kenan Yıldız | 81 | 1.8 | 84% |
| Tackles won | Manuel Locatelli | 123 | 2.8 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Francisco Conceição | 51 | 1.31 | 74% |
| Fouls committed | Lloyd Kelly | 63 | 1.47 | 74% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Locatelli | 5.08 | 44 |
| Douglas Luiz | 4.03 | 31 |
| Juan Cabal | 3.58 | 18 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Randal Kolo Muani (5g), out Dušan Vlahović (10g)
- Defence: in Zeki Çelik (127 def actions), out Filip Kostić
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._