Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Season Review
Season Overview
This season of the Jupiler Pro League saw a total of 306 fixtures analysed, with 242 fixtures featuring valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate across all fixtures was 45.6%, indicating a challenging season for bettors relying solely on predictive analytics.
Signal Performance
The predictive signals for the Jupiler Pro League showed varied performance across different ratings and fixture types.
- Home Signals:
- ★★★: 8 wins from 9 bets (88.9% hit rate)
- ★★: 37 wins from 75 bets (49.3% hit rate)
- ★: 32 wins from 85 bets (37.6% hit rate)
- Away Signals:
- ★★★: 2 wins from 3 bets (66.7% hit rate)
- ★★: 21 wins from 39 bets (53.8% hit rate)
- ★: 14 wins from 31 bets (45.2% hit rate)
Highly-rated signals (★★★) performed the best across both home and away fixtures, underscoring the value of premium insights.
Match Winner P&L
Backing Every Signal
By backing every signal with available odds, the results were:
- Total Bets: 142
- Wins: 59 (41.5% win rate)
- P&L: -10.82 units
- ROI: -7.62%
Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)
Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) showed:
- Total Bets: 47
- Wins: 20 (42.6% win rate)
- P&L: +15.38 units
- ROI: +32.72%
Selectively backing value bets provided a significant edge, highlighting the importance of strategic filtering.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|-------------|----------|------|---------------|-------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 3 | 66.7%| 3 | +0.58 | 19.3% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 35 | 45.7%| 35 | -7.07 | -20.2% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| 50-55% | 61 | 49.2%| 61 | -10.12 | -16.6% | 6 | -1.70 | -28.3% |
| 55-60% | 41 | 56.1%| 41 | -3.24 | -7.9% | 6 | -2.50 | -41.7% |
| 60-65% | 15 | 66.7%| 15 | +0.76 | 5.1% | 5 | +0.00 | 0.0% |
| 65-70% | 1 | 100% | 1 | +0.57 | 57.0% | 1 | +0.57 | 57.0% |
| TOTALS | 156 | 52.3%| 156 | -18.52 | -11.9% | 19 | -4.63 | -24.4% |
Actual Rate: 52.3%
V12 Model Avg: 53.5%
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|-------------|----------|------|---------------|-------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 20 | 30.0%| 20 | -8.17 | -40.8% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| 45-50% | 47 | 48.9%| 47 | -5.72 | -12.2% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| 50-55% | 40 | 60.0%| 40 | +2.64 | 6.6% | 7 | +0.90 | 12.9% |
| 55-60% | 32 | 56.3%| 32 | -3.74 | -11.7% | 11 | -7.30 | -66.4% |
| 60-65% | 12 | 83.3%| 12 | +3.97 | 33.1% | 5 | +2.05 | 41.0% |
| 65-70% | 5 | 60.0%| 5 | -0.51 | -10.2% | 2 | -0.35 | -17.5% |
| TOTALS | 156 | 48.0%| 156 | -11.53 | -7.4% | 27 | -6.70 | -24.8% |
Actual Rate: 48.0%
V12 Model Avg: 52.0%
Team Analysis
Over-performers (Scored Above xG)
- Club Brugge KV: 87 goals, xG 59.4 (+27.57 vs model)
- Union St. Gilloise: 65 goals, xG 47.5 (+17.52 vs model)
- Zulte Waregem: 52 goals, xG 41.6 (+10.43 vs model)
- Cercle Brugge: 52 goals, xG 42.9 (+9.14 vs model)
- Genk: 56 goals, xG 49.0 (+7.04 vs model)
Under-performers (Scored Below xG)
- Antwerp: 41 goals, xG 45.8 (-4.81 vs model)
- RAAL La Louvière: 32 goals, xG 36.7 (-4.73 vs model)
- Dender: 33 goals, xG 37.7 (-4.68 vs model)
Signal Hit Rates by Team
- Zulte Waregem: 75.0% hit rate
- Union St. Gilloise: 70.0% hit rate
- Club Brugge KV: 69.2% hit rate
- St. Truiden: 61.5% hit rate
- Anderlecht: 52.6% hit rate
- Gent: 47.1% hit rate
- OH Leuven: 44.4% hit rate
- Standard Liege: 41.7% hit rate
Players to Follow
Top Scorers
1. Nicolò Tresoldi (Club Brugge KV): 19 goals, 5 assists, 39/77 shots on target
2. Christos Tzolis (Club Brugge KV): 16 goals, 23 assists, 42/84 shots on target
3. Jeppe Erenbjerg (Zulte Waregem): 13 goals, 3 assists, 32/58 shots on target
Top Assisters
1. Christos Tzolis (Club Brugge KV): 23 assists
2. Konstantinos Karetsas (Genk): 9 assists
3. Patrick Pflücke (Charleroi): 8 assists
Players to Watch
1. Christos Tzolis (Club Brugge KV): 42/84 on target, 16 goals
2. Nacho Ferri (KVC Westerlo): 41/83 on target, 10 goals
3. Nicolò Tresoldi (Club Brugge KV): 39/77 on target, 19 goals
Key Takeaways
- Highly-rated signals (★★★) outperformed lower-rated ones, emphasizing the value of premium insights.
- Filtering to value bets significantly improved ROI, demonstrating the importance of strategic betting.
- Club Brugge KV and Union St. Gilloise were the top over-performers, consistently scoring above their expected goals.
- Selective backing of high-probability BTTS and Over 2.5 bets could provide more consistent returns, especially in higher probability brackets.