Where the model has them
The model has Holstein Kiel finishing around 5th this season. The headline probabilities show a 3.23% chance of winning the title, a 26.74% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 3.43% chance of relegation. Expected points are 50.6. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, along with the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.11 (league average is 1.00, higher means stronger attack), whilst the defence multiplier is 0.99 (league average is 1.00, lower means stronger defence). Attacking Elo is 1549, and defending Elo is 1530.
In attack
The attack strength multiplier of 1.11 suggests Holstein Kiel's attack is slightly above average. Key players to watch include Phil Harres, who scored 9 goals in 32 appearances last season, and Alexander Bernhardsson, who provided 9 assists in 20 games. Harres also led in shot volume with 46 shots in 32 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Harres with 9 goals and 3 assists, David Zec with 6 goals, and Jonas Therkelsen with 4 goals and 1 assist. Despite these contributions, the model sees no proven high-volume scorer, with Harres’s 9 goals being the best last season.
In defence
The defence strength multiplier of 0.99 indicates Holstein Kiel’s defence is just about average. The defensive-actions leaders include Marko Ivezić with 4.6 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Ivan Nekić with 3.93 per 90, and new arrival Hiroki Sekine with 3.65 per 90. These numbers suggest a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw the attack multiplier move from 0.97 to 1.11, and the defence multiplier shift from 1.00 to 0.99. Key attacking arrival Guillermo Balzi, who scored 3 goals last season, is expected to bolster the attack. The notable departure was Steven Skrzybski, who scored 2 goals. On the defensive side, Hiroki Sekine arrived and is expected to contribute with his 57 defensive actions last season. Magnus Knudsen’s departure didn’t significantly impact the defence multiplier.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to the projection is the lack of a proven high-volume scorer. Phil Harres’s 9 goals last season are the best in the squad, but relying on him alone could be problematic. This weakness could see Holstein Kiel struggle to consistently put away chances, potentially costing them crucial points in a competitive league.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Phil Harres | 9 | 0.28 | 25% |
| Assists | Alexander Bernhardsson | 9 | 0.45 | 40% |
| Shots | Phil Harres | 46 | 1.44 | 75% |
| Tackles won | Alexander Bernhardsson | 31 | 1.55 | 90% |
| Fouls drawn | Guillermo Balzi | 50 | 1.92 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Marko Ivezić | 36 | 1.38 | 77% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Marko Ivezić | 4.6 | 26 |
| Ivan Nekić | 3.93 | 18 |
| Hiroki Sekine | 3.65 | 24 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Guillermo Balzi (3g), out Steven Skrzybski (2g)
- Defence: in Hiroki Sekine (57 def actions), out Magnus Knudsen
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._