Where the model has them
The model has Hertha BSC finishing around 4th. The probabilities are clear: a 3.67% chance of the title, 29.84% for the top four, and a slim 2.48% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, along with the Elo ratings. Hertha's attack strength multiplier is 0.97 (1.00 being the league average, higher meaning a stronger attack), whilst their defence multiplier is 0.82 (1.00 being average, lower meaning a stronger defence that concedes fewer goals). Their attacking Elo is 1522 and defending Elo 1565. These numbers paint a picture of a well-rounded side with a slight lean towards defensive solidity.
In attack
Hertha's attack is just below average with a strength multiplier of 0.97. The key players to watch here are Jan Luca Schuler, who scored 8 goals in 26 appearances last season, and Marten Winkler, who provided 6 assists in 30 games. Winkler also had the highest shot volume with 41 shots in 30 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Schuler with 8 goals and 1 assist, Winkler with 6 goals and 6 assists, and new arrival Oluwaseun Adewumi, who scored 4 goals last season. Despite these contributors, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a concern.
In defence
On the defensive side, Hertha looks stronger with a defence multiplier of 0.82. The defensive-actions leaders are Julian Eitschberger with 5.53 actions per 90 minutes, Deyovaisio Zeefuik with 4.57, and Kevin Sessa with 4.14. Zeefuik also won 37 tackles in 22 appearances. This defensive solidity, combined with a lower multiplier, suggests Hertha will concede fewer goals than most in the league.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.95 to 0.97, thanks to the arrival of Oluwaseun Adewumi, who scored 4 goals last season. On the flip side, Fabian Reese, who scored 10 goals, left. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 0.89 to 0.82. Adewumi also brings defensive nous with 21 defensive actions last season. The departure of Michaël Cuisance didn't significantly impact the defensive numbers.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weakness the model sees is the lack of a proven high-volume scorer. Jan Luca Schuler's 8 goals last season are the best in the squad, but that's not exactly a prolific output. This could be the Achilles' heel, especially if Hertha rely too heavily on their defence. The risk is that whilst they might keep games tight, they could struggle to win them if the goals don't flow.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jan Luca Schuler | 8 | 0.31 | 27% |
| Assists | Marten Winkler | 6 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Shots | Marten Winkler | 41 | 1.37 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Deyovaisio Zeefuik | 37 | 1.68 | 77% |
| Fouls drawn | Paul Seguin | 29 | 1.21 | 71% |
| Fouls committed | Paul Seguin | 23 | 0.96 | 75% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Julian Eitschberger | 5.53 | 24 |
| Deyovaisio Zeefuik | 4.57 | 22 |
| Kevin Sessa | 4.14 | 20 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Oluwaseun Adewumi (4g), out Fabian Reese (10g)
- Defence: in Oluwaseun Adewumi (21 def actions), out Michaël Cuisance
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._