Where the model has them
The model projects Heerenveen to finish around 12th this season, with a 0.18% chance of the title, 4.78% chance of the top four, and an 11.66% chance of relegation. They're expected to earn 43.4 points. The key drivers here are their attack and defence strength, along with their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.94 (1.00 is the league average, higher is stronger), whilst their defence multiplier is 1.05 (1.00 is average, lower means a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1588 and their defensive Elo is 1545.
In attack
Heerenveen's attack is rated below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.94. Jacob Trenskow was the standout last season, scoring 13 goals in 34 appearances, chipping in with 5 assists, and firing off 58 shots. Trenskow featured in 38% of their games and was involved in 53% of their goals. Dylan Vente and Ringo Meerveld are the next best scorers, with Vente netting 8 goals and Meerveld 6. Losing Lasse Selvåg Nordås, who scored 7 last season, doesn't help their attacking output.
In defence
On the defensive side, Heerenveen's strength multiplier is 1.05, which is slightly above average. Their defensive-actions leaders are Mats Egbring (4.74 per 90), Hristiyan Petrov (4.21 per 90), and Marcus Linday (4.12 per 90 and 79 tackles won last season). Linday played in 91% of their games last season, making him a key figure at the back.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Heerenveen's attack multiplier drop from 1.02 to 0.94, whilst their defence multiplier improved slightly from 1.08 to 1.05. Dirk Proper arrived, contributing both in attack (3 goals last season) and defence (32 defensive actions). The notable departure was Joris van Overeem at the back, but the addition of Proper should help cover that loss.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Heerenveen is their below-average attack, compounded by the loss of a net positive goal contribution in the transfer window. If Trenskow doesn't fire on all cylinders, they could struggle for goals. Their defence is solid but not spectacular, so they'll need to be clinical when they do create chances. The risk is they end up in a relegation dogfight if their attack doesn't step up.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jacob Trenskow | 13 | 0.38 | 38% |
| Assists | Jacob Trenskow | 5 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Jacob Trenskow | 58 | 1.71 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Marcus Linday | 79 | 2.39 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Oliver Braude | 55 | 1.67 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Oliver Braude | 48 | 1.45 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mats Egbring | 4.74 | 8 |
| Hristiyan Petrov | 4.21 | 21 |
| Marcus Linday | 4.12 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Dirk Proper (3g), out Lasse Selvåg Nordås (7g)
- Defence: in Dirk Proper (32 def actions), out Joris van Overeem
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._