Where the model has them
The model sees Groningen finishing around 6th this season, with a 2.05% chance of lifting the title, a 25.83% shot at the top four, and a 1.34% risk of relegation. These projections come down to the attack and defence strength multipliers, plus the Elo ratings. The attack multiplier is 0.97 (1.00 is average, higher is stronger), whilst the defence multiplier is 0.81 (1.00 is average, lower is stronger). The attacking Elo is 1545, and the defending Elo is 1596. The defence is clearly the stronger side of their game.
In attack
Groningen's attack is below average, with a strength multiplier of 0.97. Thom van Bergen led the way last season with 9 goals in 34 appearances, and he also took the most shots with 71. Stije Resink chipped in with 5 assists in 24 games, and he also scored 5 goals. The top scorers in the squad are van Bergen with 9 goals and 4 assists, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson with 6 goals, and Resink with his 5 goals and 5 assists. The model sees this as a below-average attack, with no proven high-volume scorer.
In defence
The defence is the clear strength, with a multiplier of 0.81. The leaders in defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, blocks per 90) are Wouter Prins with 5.11 per 90, Stije Resink with 4.04 per 90, and Tyrique Mercera with 4.02 per 90. Resink also won 61 tackles in 24 appearances, showing his dual threat. This solid defence will be key to Groningen's season.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. Pelle Clement arrived and boosted both the attack (0.88 to 0.97) and defence (0.88 to 0.81) multipliers. He scored 2 goals and made 51 defensive actions last season, so he's a useful addition. The departure of Younes Taha, who scored 5 goals last term, slightly weakened the attack. Defensively, they lost Dies Janse, but the arrival of Clement more than offsets that.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Groningen's projection is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. Thom van Bergen's 9 goals last season were the best in the squad, but that's not enough to carry a top-half attack. If van Bergen doesn't fire, or if injuries hit, the attack could struggle to put enough goals on the board to match their solid defence. Keep an eye on their goal output this season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Thom van Bergen | 9 | 0.26 | 24% |
| Assists | Stije Resink | 5 | 0.21 | 21% |
| Shots | Thom van Bergen | 71 | 2.09 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Stije Resink | 61 | 2.54 | 100% |
| Fouls drawn | Thom van Bergen | 70 | 2.06 | 97% |
| Fouls committed | Thom van Bergen | 49 | 1.44 | 68% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Wouter Prins | 5.11 | 22 |
| Stije Resink | 4.04 | 24 |
| Tyrique Mercera | 4.02 | 22 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Pelle Clement (2g), out Younes Taha (5g)
- Defence: in Pelle Clement (51 def actions), out Dies Janse
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._