Where the model has them
Genoa are projected to finish 13th in the Serie A table this season, with an expected finishing position of 13.6. The model gives them a 0.01% chance of winning the title, a 0.28% chance of making the top four, and a 15.16% chance of relegation. These numbers are driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.81 (league average is 1.00), meaning their attack is below average. The defence strength multiplier is 1.07 (league average is 1.00, lower is better), showing a defence that is leakier than the average Serie A side. Their attacking Elo is 1572, whilst their defensive Elo is 1640.
In attack
Genoa's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.81. Lorenzo Colombo was the top scorer last season with 7 goals in 38 appearances, but that's not a high-volume scorer by Serie A standards. Aarón Martín provided 5 assists in 33 games, whilst Vitinha had the highest shot volume with 41 shots in 35 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals, 1 assist), Leo Østigård (5 goals, 1 assist), and Djibril Sow (5 goals, 4 assists). The attack lacks a consistent, high-volume goal threat, which is reflected in the below-average attack multiplier.
In defence
Defensively, Genoa are rated as slightly worse than the league average, with a defence strength multiplier of 1.07. Morten Frendrup leads the way in defensive actions, averaging 4.43 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes. Alexsandro Amorim follows with 4.17 per 90, and Johan Vásquez with 3.69 per 90. Whilst Frendrup's numbers are solid, the overall defence multiplier suggests this is a soft spot for the team.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window saw some key moves that slightly adjusted the model's numbers. The arrival of Djibril Sow, who scored 5 goals and made 4 assists last season whilst also contributing 69 defensive actions, helped nudge the attack multiplier down from 0.86 to 0.81 and the defence multiplier down from 1.14 to 1.07. The departure of Ruslan Malinovskyi, who scored 6 goals last season, meant a net loss in attacking output. Patrizio Masini's exit also impacted the defence, though Sow's dual contributions somewhat balanced this out.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Genoa revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. The defence, whilst not terrible, is also rated as leakier than the Serie A average. The loss of Ruslan Malinovskyi's goals in the transfer window hasn't been fully offset, leaving the attack as a potential soft spot. These factors combine to suggest a mid-table finish, with a notable risk of relegation at 15.16%.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Lorenzo Colombo | 7 | 0.18 | 18% |
| Assists | Aarón Martín | 5 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Vitinha | 41 | 1.17 | 71% |
| Tackles won | Morten Frendrup | 99 | 2.75 | 97% |
| Fouls drawn | Vitinha | 68 | 1.94 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Samuel Wiafe | 12 | 1.33 | 78% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Morten Frendrup | 4.43 | 36 |
| Alexsandro Amorim | 4.17 | 11 |
| Johan Vásquez | 3.69 | 36 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Djibril Sow (5g), out Ruslan Malinovskyi (6g)
- Defence: in Djibril Sow (69 def actions), out Patrizio Masini
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._