Where the model has them
The model has Frosinone finishing 15th this season, with a 21.39% chance of relegation. The driving forces behind this projection are their attack and defence strength, coupled with their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.93 indicates an attack below the league average, whilst their defence multiplier of 1.3 suggests a defence that concedes more than the average. Their attacking Elo of 1604 and defending Elo of 1605 reflect their newly promoted status, with their defensive rating slightly edging out their attacking one.
In attack
Frosinone's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.93. Key to their attacking play last season were Farès Ghedjemis, who scored 15 goals in 36 appearances, and Giacomo Calò, who provided 15 assists in the same number of games. Ghedjemis also led in shot volume with 76 shots in 36 appearances. Despite these contributions, the overall attack remains below average, which the model reflects in its projections.
In defence
On the defensive side, Frosinone's defence multiplier of 1.3 indicates a unit that concedes more than the league average. Leading the defensive actions were Giorgio Cittadini with 7.24 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, followed by Patrizio Masini with 6.35 and Jacopo Gelli with 4.74. This defensive setup, whilst solid in terms of actions, is still seen as a soft spot by the model due to the higher defence multiplier.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in the model's view of Frosinone. The attack multiplier moved from 0.97 to 0.93, reflecting the loss of Antonio Raimondo, who scored 11 goals last season, and the addition of Romano Schmid, who contributed 4 goals. Defensively, the multiplier improved slightly from 1.36 to 1.3, thanks to the arrival of Anouar El Azzouzi, who had 106 defensive actions last season. Raimondo's departure impacted both attack and defence, as he was a key player in both areas.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Frosinone's projection stem from their below-average attack and slightly above-average defence, compounded by their newly promoted status. Much of their squad is unproven at the Serie A level, which adds an element of unpredictability to their season. The model's relegation probability of 21.39% underscores these risks, highlighting the need for Frosinone to quickly adapt and prove themselves at this higher level.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Farès Ghedjemis | 15 | 0.42 | 39% |
| Assists | Giacomo Calò | 15 | 0.42 | 39% |
| Shots | Farès Ghedjemis | 76 | 2.11 | 86% |
| Tackles won | Anouar El Azzouzi | 71 | 2.54 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Giacomo Calò | 79 | 2.19 | 94% |
| Fouls committed | Ilario Monterisi | 61 | 2.54 | 88% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Giorgio Cittadini | 7.24 | 24 |
| Patrizio Masini | 6.35 | 28 |
| Jacopo Gelli | 4.74 | 17 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Romano Schmid (4g), out Antonio Raimondo (11g)
- Defence: in Anouar El Azzouzi (106 def actions), out Antonio Raimondo
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._