Where the model has them
The model has Fortuna Sittard finishing around 17th in the Eredivisie this season, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, 0.40% chance of making the top four, and a 43.98% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 35.0. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers, alongside the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier of 0.82 (1.00 = league average, higher = stronger attack) indicates an attack below the league average. The defence multiplier of 1.21 (1.00 = average, LOWER = stronger, concedes fewer) suggests a defence that, whilst not terrible, is still leakier than the average side. The attacking Elo is 1528 and the defending Elo is 1531, both of which contribute to the overall projection.
In attack
Fortuna Sittard's attack is rated below average with a strength multiplier of 0.82. Key players in this area include Mohamed Ihattaren, who provided 10 assists in 28 appearances last season, and Anthony Descotte, who scored 4 goals in 15 appearances. Ihattaren also delivered 44 shots in those 28 games. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Ihattaren's 6 goals being the best last season. This below-average attack is a significant factor in the model's projection.
In defence
On the defensive side, the model rates Fortuna Sittard with a defence multiplier of 1.21, indicating a unit that concedes more than the league average. Leading the defensive actions are Yassin Oukili with 5.33 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Philip Brittijn with 4.84 per 90, and Syb van Ottele with 4.69 per 90. Whilst these players contribute solid defensive efforts, the overall defence is still seen as a soft spot, contributing to the team's projected lower finish.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal changes to the model's projections for Fortuna Sittard. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.86 to 0.82, and the defence remained at 1.21. Anthony Descotte, who scored 4 goals last season, is the key attacking arrival. Kaj Sierhuis, who scored 12 goals last season, departed. Defensively, Lequincio Zeefuik arrived, contributing 16 defensive actions, whilst Shawn Adewoye left. These changes did not materially alter the model's view of the team's strengths and weaknesses.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Fortuna Sittard's projection revolve around their below-average attack and slightly above-average defence. The lack of a high-volume scorer and the reliance on a few key players in both attack and defence pose significant threats. If these players underperform or get injured, the model suggests the team could struggle even more, increasing their relegation risk.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Anthony Descotte | 4 | 0.27 | 20% |
| Assists | Mohamed Ihattaren | 10 | 0.36 | 25% |
| Shots | Mohamed Ihattaren | 44 | 1.57 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Édouard Michut | 44 | 2.2 | 85% |
| Fouls drawn | Édouard Michut | 47 | 2.35 | 85% |
| Fouls committed | Édouard Michut | 35 | 1.75 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Yassin Oukili | 5.33 | 13 |
| Philip Brittijn | 4.84 | 32 |
| Syb van Ottele | 4.69 | 15 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Anthony Descotte (4g), out Kaj Sierhuis (12g)
- Defence: in Lequincio Zeefuik (16 def actions), out Shawn Adewoye
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._