Where the model has them
The model projects Fiorentina to finish 14th in Serie A this season, with a relegation probability of 18.19%. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.9, which is below the league average of 1.00, whilst their defence multiplier is 1.21, which is above the average of 1.00 (lower is better in defence). This means their attack is weaker than the average side, whilst their defence, though better than last season, is still above the average in terms of goals conceded. Their attacking Elo is 1612, and their defensive Elo is 1642. These numbers are the backbone of the model's 14th place projection.
In attack
Fiorentina's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.9. Moise Kean was the top scorer last season with 9 goals in 33 appearances, but that's not a high-volume scorer by top-flight standards. Albert Guðmundsson chipped in with 10 goals and 7 assists, but again, it's not a standout attacking output. The arrival of Mateo Pellegrino, who scored 9 goals last season, should help, but it's clear the model sees Fiorentina's attack as a below-average unit.
In defence
On the defensive side, Fiorentina's defence multiplier is 1.21, which is worse than the league average of 1.00. Álex Jiménez leads the way in tackles won with 67 in 31 appearances. Radu Drăguşin and Álex Jiménez are the top defensive-actions leaders, with 4.45 and 4.13 per 90 minutes respectively. This defence is an improvement over last season, but the model still rates it as a weak spot relative to the league average.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some key changes. Mateo Pellegrino arrived and is expected to boost the attack, moving the attack multiplier from 0.94 to 0.9. On the defensive side, Álex Jiménez came in and improved the defence multiplier from 1.12 to 1.21. However, the departure of Edin Džeko, who scored 8 goals last season, has weakened the attack. The net effect is a slight improvement in defence but a loss in attacking output.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Fiorentina revolve around their attack and defence. They lack a proven high-volume scorer, with their best last season managing just 10 goals. Their attack is rated below the league average, and they've lost net attacking output with Džeko's departure. Whilst their defence has improved, it's still rated as leakier than the average side. These factors combine to give Fiorentina a relegation probability of 18.19%, underpinning the model's 14th place projection.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Moise Kean | 9 | 0.27 | 24% |
| Assists | Albert Guðmundsson | 7 | 0.16 | 16% |
| Shots | Moise Kean | 91 | 2.76 | 88% |
| Tackles won | Álex Jiménez | 67 | 2.16 | 81% |
| Fouls drawn | Fabiano Parisi | 84 | 2.63 | 84% |
| Fouls committed | Mateo Pellegrino | 87 | 2.35 | 92% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Radu Drăguşin | 4.45 | 11 |
| Álex Jiménez | 4.13 | 31 |
| Niccolò Fortini | 3.88 | 25 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Mateo Pellegrino (9g), out Edin Džeko (8g)
- Defence: in Álex Jiménez (105 def actions), out Pietro Comuzzo
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._