UEFA Champions League | Wednesday, 5 August 2026 | 18:00 GMT

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Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe’s home record over the last 10 games stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 3 goals scored and 5 conceded. The scorelines were as follows: 1-0 vs Gornik Zabrze (W), 0-3 vs Nottingham Forest (L), 0-1 vs Aston Villa (L), 1-1 vs Ferencvarosi TC (D), and 1-0 vs VfB Stuttgart (W). Across all 10 recent games, they have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8.

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz’s away record in the last 10 games is 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 4 goals and conceding 9. The scorelines were: 2-0 vs Heart Of Midlothian (W), 0-3 vs Feyenoord (L), 1-2 vs Panathinaikos (L), 1-2 vs Celtic (L), and 0-2 (L). Their overall record across the last 10 games shows 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded.

What the Numbers Say

The primary model rates Fenerbahçe’s chances of winning at 48%, with a 28.7% probability of a draw and 23.4% for an away win. This makes Fenerbahçe the most probable outcome and the standout accumulator leg. A second independent model also agrees on the home win.

Turning to the price, the market odds for Fenerbahçe are 1.30, whilst the model’s fair odds sit at 2.09, yielding a one-star value rating. This means the market price is fair or shorter than the model's fair odds, so there is no value in it on its own. This fixture is a high-likelihood pick with no value edge. The sG (signal goals) for Fenerbahçe is 1.3, compared to 0.8 for Sturm Graz, indicating a stronger attacking threat from the home side. The probability of both teams scoring is 41%, and the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 37%, suggesting a potentially open game. BetSignals surfaces these numbers; the decision on how to use them is yours.

Player Intelligence

The most striking category across both squads is tackles, with Fenerbahçe’s top player registering 4.5 per 90 minutes and Sturm Graz’s leading tackler at 5.226 per 90. The next most notable category is fouls drawn, where Fenerbahçe’s best player achieves 2.231 per 90, and Sturm Graz’s top player draws 3.186 per 90. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals for more data-led insights.