Where the model has them
The model has FC St. Pauli finishing around 5th, with a 2.81% chance of winning the title, a 26.05% shot at the top four, and a 2.66% risk of relegation. This projection comes down to their attack and defence strength. The attack multiplier is 0.82 (1.00 is the league average, so this is below average) and the defence multiplier is 0.69 (lower means stronger, so this is above average). Their attacking Elo is 1498 and their defending Elo is 1612, reflecting their step down into this division after relegation from the tier above.
In attack
FC St. Pauli's attack is rated below the league average with a multiplier of 0.82. Branimir Hrgota is key here, bringing in 5 goals last season, and he's now their main assist-maker with 9 last season. Mathias Pereira Lage offers shot volume with 30 shots in 27 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Branimir Hrgota (5g/9a), Martijn Kaars (5g/1a), and Scott Banks (4g/4a). The model flags a lack of a proven high-volume scorer, with Hrgota's 5 goals being the best last season. This is a clear weakness.
In defence
On the defensive side, FC St. Pauli looks stronger with a defence multiplier of 0.69. Their defensive-actions leaders are Lars Ritzka (5.54 per 90), Adam Dźwigała (5.14 per 90), and Marcus Mathisen (4.51 per 90). Joel Chima Fujita won 67 tackles in 31 appearances. This side of the game is a clear strength for them.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.86 to 0.82, and the defence from 0.73 to 0.69. Branimir Hrgota, who scored 5 goals last season, is a key attacking arrival. Danel Sinani, who also scored 5 goals, left. Defensively, Marcus Mathisen came in, noted for his 141 defensive actions, whilst James Sands departed. These moves have slightly strengthened both ends of the pitch according to the model.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to the model's projection for FC St. Pauli revolve around their attack and the fact they are a relegated side stepping down into this division. They lack a proven high-volume scorer, and their attack is below the league average. The squad may yet be broken up, and the model has no record of them at this level, adding an element of uncertainty.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ricky-Jade Jones | 2 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Assists | Branimir Hrgota | 9 | 0.26 | 27% |
| Shots | Mathias Pereira Lage | 30 | 1.11 | 70% |
| Tackles won | Joel Chima Fujita | 67 | 2.16 | 87% |
| Fouls drawn | Branimir Hrgota | 87 | 2.56 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Branimir Hrgota | 46 | 1.35 | 74% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Ritzka | 5.54 | 20 |
| Adam Dźwigała | 5.14 | 19 |
| Marcus Mathisen | 4.51 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Branimir Hrgota (5g), out Danel Sinani (5g)
- Defence: in Marcus Mathisen (141 def actions), out James Sands
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._