Where the model has them
The model projects Excelsior to finish around 13th in the Eredivisie this season. This comes with a 0.07% chance of winning the title, a 2.53% chance of making the top four, and a 17.88% chance of relegation. The expected points tally sits at 41.0. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, along with the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.86, meaning their attack is below the league average. The defence multiplier is 1.03, slightly above average, indicating a defence that concedes fewer goals than most. The attacking Elo is 1554, and the defending Elo is 1535.
In attack
Excelsior's attack is below the league average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 0.86. Noah Naujoks was the top scorer last season with 10 goals in 31 appearances, contributing 29% of the team's goals. He also led in shot volume with 52 shots in 31 games. Gyan de Regt provided the most assists with 7 in 34 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a high-volume scorer, with Naujoks being the closest at 10 goals. This below-average attack will likely struggle to consistently find the net this season.
In defence
Defensively, Excelsior looks slightly stronger than average with a defence multiplier of 1.03. The defensive-actions leaders are Jan Plug, Nolan Martens, and Lennard Hartjes. Plug leads with 4.96 defensive actions per 90 minutes, followed by Martens with 3.93 and Hartjes with 3.74. Hartjes also won 34 tackles in 21 appearances. This defensive solidity should help them avoid heavy defeats, but it won’t compensate entirely for their below-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model’s numbers. The attack multiplier improved slightly from 0.84 to 0.86, whilst the defence multiplier dropped from 1.13 to 1.03. The notable departure was Derensili Sanches Fernandes, who scored 6 goals last season. On the defensive side, Jan Plug arrived and is expected to contribute significantly with his 15 defensive actions. Arthur Zagre left, but the overall defensive solidity remains, thanks to the existing and new talent.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Excelsior's projection revolve around their attacking limitations. With no proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average, they face a significant challenge in consistently scoring goals. This weakness, combined with a slightly above-average defence, means they are likely to scrape by in mid-table, with a real threat of relegation if their attack fails to step up.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Noah Naujoks | 10 | 0.32 | 29% |
| Assists | Gyan de Regt | 7 | 0.21 | 18% |
| Shots | Noah Naujoks | 52 | 1.68 | 68% |
| Tackles won | Lennard Hartjes | 34 | 1.62 | 95% |
| Fouls drawn | Noah Naujoks | 30 | 0.97 | 65% |
| Fouls committed | Noah Naujoks | 47 | 1.52 | 84% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Plug | 4.96 | 8 |
| Nolan Martens | 3.93 | 9 |
| Lennard Hartjes | 3.74 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Derensili Sanches Fernandes (6g)
- Defence: in Jan Plug (15 def actions), out Arthur Zagre
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._