Season Overview

The 2025/2026 Eredivisie season saw a total of 309 fixtures, with 256 of these providing valid model signals for analysis. The overall signal hit rate across all signals stood at 51.9%, indicating a moderately successful season for our predictive models.

Signal Performance

The performance of our signals varied by type and strength. Home signals with a ★★★ rating performed best, with a 73.1% hit rate from 26 bets, followed by ★★ signals at 46.7% from 92 bets, and ★ signals at 50.0% from 38 bets. For away signals, the highest accuracy was also from ★★★ signals at 71.4% from 14 bets, followed by ★★ signals at 38.1% from 63 bets, and ★ signals at 34.8% from 23 bets.

Match Winner P&L

We tested two approaches to betting on match winners. Backing every signal with available odds resulted in 140 bets, with a win rate of 43.6%, a P&L of -25.78 units, and an ROI of -18.41%. Filtering to only value bets (edge > 0) resulted in 49 bets, a win rate of 20.4%, a P&L of -14.27 units, and an ROI of -29.12%. Filtering for value bets did not provide a meaningful edge in this season, as the overall P&L and ROI were worse compared to backing all signals.

BTTS by Probability Bracket

The V12 model's predictions for Both Teams to Score (BTTS) were compared against actual outcomes across various probability brackets. The overall actual rate was 62.1%, compared to the model's average of 55.2%.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|-------------|-----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 2 | 50.0%| 2 bets | -0.33 units | -16.5% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 45-50% | 20 | 50.0%| 20 bets | -4.11 units | -20.5% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 50-55% | 56 | 53.6%| 56 bets | -8.70 units | -15.5% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 55-60% | 57 | 68.4%| 57 bets | +3.13 units | 5.5% | 3 bets | +2.36 units| 78.7% |

| 60-65% | 20 | 80.0%| 20 bets | +3.44 units | 17.2% | 2 bets | +1.22 units| 61.0% |

| 65-70% | 2 | 100.0%| 2 bets | +1.04 units | 52.0% | 1 bet | +0.60 units| 60.0% |

| 70%+ | 0 | - | 0 bets | - | - | 0 bets | - | - |

| Totals | 157 | | 157 bets | -5.53 units| -3.5% | 6 bets | +4.18 units | 69.7% |

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

The model's predictions for Over 2.5 goals were also compared across various probability brackets. The overall actual rate was 61.2%, compared to the model's average of 54.2%.

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|-------------|-----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 10 | 50.0%| 10 bets | -1.44 units | -14.4% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 45-50% | 23 | 47.8%| 23 bets | -5.78 units | -25.1% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 50-55% | 59 | 54.2%| 59 bets | -10.34 units | -17.5% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 55-60% | 39 | 66.7%| 39 bets | -0.95 units | -2.4% | 2 bets | -0.25 units| -12.5% |

| 60-65% | 19 | 73.7%| 19 bets | +0.50 units | 2.6% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 65-70% | 7 | 85.7%| 7 bets | +1.23 units | 17.6% | 0 bets | - | - |

| 70%+ | 0 | - | 0 bets | - | - | 0 bets | - | - |

| Totals | 157 | | 157 bets | -16.78 units| -10.7% | 2 bets | -0.25 units | -12.5% |

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed relative to their expected goals (xG). PSV Eindhoven had the highest over-performance, scoring 42.27 more goals than expected across 34 fixtures. Feyenoord, Utrecht, and Ajax also over-performed significantly. On the flip side, Heracles, FC Volendam, and NAC Breda under-performed, scoring fewer goals than their xG would suggest.

Signal hit rates were also analyzed by team. PSV Eindhoven had the highest accuracy with 82.1%, followed by Feyenoord at 68.4%. FC Volendam had the lowest accuracy with 60.0%.

Players to Follow

The top scorers and assisters provided valuable contributions this season. Ayase Ueda led the scoring charts with 25 goals, while Mika Godts topped the assists chart with 13. Players like Tjaronn Chery and Troy Parrott also stood out with significant shot volumes and conversion rates.

Key Takeaways