Where the model has them
The model has Energie Cottbus finishing around 18th in the 2. Bundesliga this season, with a 0.02% chance of winning the title, 0.54% of finishing in the top four, and a 57.07% probability of relegation. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers, as well as the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier stands at 0.88, which is below the league average (1.00), indicating a weaker-than-average attack. The defence multiplier is 1.31, higher than the average (1.00), meaning their defence is expected to be leakier than most.
In attack
When it comes to the attacking side of things, Energie Cottbus is projected to struggle. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.88 shows they’re below the league average. Leonardo Bittencourt is the key attacking player, but his numbers don’t inspire much confidence. He managed just 1 assist and 6 shots in 17 appearances last season. That’s 6% of games for assists and 35% for shots. The squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a significant issue.
In defence
Defensively, Energie Cottbus is in a slightly better position, though not by much. Their defence multiplier of 1.31 indicates they’ll concede more goals than the average team. Again, Leonardo Bittencourt is a standout, but not in a good way. He led the squad in tackles won (16 in 17 games) and defensive actions (3.46 per 90 minutes), but that’s more a reflection of his work rate than defensive solidity.
What the window changed
The transfer window didn’t do much to change the outlook for Energie Cottbus. The attack multiplier remained at 0.88, and the defence multiplier nudged up slightly to 1.31. Leonardo Bittencourt was the main addition, bringing in some defensive actions (24 last season) but failing to boost the attack significantly (0 goals last season).
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks for Energie Cottbus this season revolve around their lack of proven attacking talent and a defence that’s expected to be leakier than average. They’re newly promoted, so much of the squad is unproven at this level. This combination points to a tough season ahead, with the model projecting them to battle against relegation throughout.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assists | Leonardo Bittencourt | 1 | 0.06 | 6% |
| Shots | Leonardo Bittencourt | 6 | 0.35 | 35% |
| Tackles won | Leonardo Bittencourt | 16 | 0.94 | 53% |
| Fouls drawn | Leonardo Bittencourt | 11 | 0.65 | 29% |
| Fouls committed | Leonardo Bittencourt | 7 | 0.41 | 41% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Bittencourt | 3.46 | 17 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Leonardo Bittencourt (0g), out -
- Defence: in Leonardo Bittencourt (24 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._