Where the model has them
The model projects Dynamo Dresden to finish around 6th in the 2. Bundesliga this season. This comes with a 2.17% chance of winning the title, a 20.58% chance of landing a top-four spot, and a 5.42% risk of relegation. The expected points tally sits at 48.9. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers, alongside the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier stands at 1.17 (1.00 is the league average, higher is stronger), whilst the defence multiplier is 1.11 (1.00 is average, lower is stronger, concedes fewer). Their attacking Elo is 1550, and their defensive Elo is 1520. These numbers paint a clear picture of a team with a slightly above-average attack and a defence that's just a touch below average.
In attack
Dynamo Dresden's attack, with a strength multiplier of 1.17, is a fraction above the league average. Vincent Vermeij led the scoring last season with 11 goals in 23 appearances, making up 39% of the games. Alexander Rossipal chipped in with 7 assists in 27 appearances (26% of games). Jakob Lemmer provided the shot volume, firing 39 shots in 31 appearances (71% of games). The top scorers in the squad are Vermeij with 11 goals and 2 assists, Christoph Daferner with 7 goals and 1 assist, and Lemmer with 6 goals and 1 assist. It's a solid, if unspectacular, attacking lineup.
In defence
On the defensive side, the model rates Dynamo Dresden as slightly weaker than average, with a defence multiplier of 1.11. The defensive-actions leaders are Tobias Raschl with 4.41 per 90 minutes, Nicolai Rapp with 4.31 per 90, and Jonas Oehmichen with 3.84 per 90. These numbers suggest a defence that's competent but not outstanding. It's a unit that will concede goals, albeit not in droves.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some tweaks to both ends of the pitch. The attack strength multiplier moved from 1.08 to 1.17, thanks in part to the arrival of Kenneth Schmidt, who scored 1 goal last season. The defence multiplier shifted from 1.08 to 1.11, with Nicolai Rapp coming in (86 defensive actions last season) and Kofi Jeremy Amoako leaving. These changes suggest a slightly stronger attack and a marginally weaker defence post-window.
Weaknesses and risks
The model highlights two main weaknesses for Dynamo Dresden this season. Firstly, there's no proven high-volume scorer in the squad, with Vincent Vermeij's 11 goals last season being the best on offer. Secondly, the defence is rated as leakier than average, with a defence multiplier of 1.11. These factors combined pose the main risks to the model's projection. If the attack fails to find consistent goals or the defence continues to concede at a higher rate, Dynamo Dresden could find themselves slipping down the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Vincent Vermeij | 11 | 0.48 | 39% |
| Assists | Alexander Rossipal | 7 | 0.26 | 26% |
| Shots | Jakob Lemmer | 39 | 1.26 | 71% |
| Tackles won | Alexander Rossipal | 49 | 1.81 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Ben Justus Bobzien | 28 | 1.56 | 83% |
| Fouls committed | Nicolai Rapp | 33 | 1.38 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Raschl | 4.41 | 12 |
| Nicolai Rapp | 4.31 | 24 |
| Jonas Oehmichen | 3.84 | 10 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Kenneth Schmidt (1g), out Jason Ceka (3g)
- Defence: in Nicolai Rapp (86 def actions), out Kofi Jeremy Amoako
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._