Season Overview
The 2025/2026 Championship season was a compelling study in football analytics and betting. With a total of 557 fixtures analysed and 462 fixtures featuring valid model signals, the season provided a wealth of data for BetSignals subscribers. The overall signal hit rate stood at 48.1%, indicating a season where both value and variance played significant roles.
Signal Performance
The analysis of signals by star rating revealed varying degrees of success:
- Home signals:
- ★★★: 25 bets, 17 won (68.0% hit rate), 8 draws
- ★★: 141 bets, 76 won (53.9% hit rate), 38 draws
- ★: 150 bets, 59 won (39.3% hit rate), 41 draws
- Overall: 152/316 (48.1%)
- Draw signals:
- ★: 3 bets, 1 won (33.3% hit rate)
- Overall: 1/3 (33.3%)
- Away signals:
- ★★★: 13 bets, 9 won (69.2% hit rate), 3 draws
- ★★: 74 bets, 33 won (44.6% hit rate), 18 draws
- ★: 56 bets, 17 won (30.4% hit rate), 19 draws
- Overall: 59/143 (41.3%)
The highest hit rates were observed in the ★★★ home and away signals, indicating that higher-rated signals were more reliable predictors of match outcomes.
Match Winner P&L
Betting on all signals with available odds resulted in the following outcomes:
- Back all signals: 258 bets, 120 wins (46.5%), P&L -17.34 units, ROI -6.72%
- Value bets only (edge > 0): 72 bets, 30 wins (41.7%), P&L +12.48 units, ROI +17.33%, max win streak 4, max loss streak 7
Filtering to value bets added meaningful edge, as evidenced by the significantly higher ROI of 17.33% compared to -6.72% when backing all signals.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|----------|
| <45% | 16 | 62.5%| 16 | +4.02 | 25.1% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 51 | 51.0%| 51 | -2.02 | -4.0% | 6 | +2.50 | 41.7% |
| 50-55% | 110 | 50.0%| 110 | -9.42 | -8.6% | 30 | -3.55 | -11.8% |
| 55-60% | 87 | 55.2%| 87 | -3.67 | -4.2% | 44 | -3.55 | -8.1% |
| 60-65% | 29 | 62.1%| 29 | +1.33 | 4.6% | 20 | +0.90 | 4.5% |
| 65-70% | 2 | 50.0%| 2 | -0.27 | -13.5% | 2 | -0.27 | -13.5% |
| 70%+ | 0 | - | 0 | - | - | 0 | - | - |
| Totals | 295 | -| 295 | -10.03 | -3.4% | 102 | -3.97 | -3.9%|
The overall actual BTTS rate was 56.4%, slightly higher than the V12 model average of 53.6%.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|----------|
| <45% | 51 | 51.0%| 51 | +2.11 | 4.1% | 2 | +2.80 | 140.0% |
| 45-50% | 92 | 48.9%| 92 | -5.21 | -5.7% | 24 | -3.85 | -16.0% |
| 50-55% | 89 | 50.6%| 89 | -5.68 | -6.4% | 37 | -1.03 | -2.8% |
| 55-60% | 48 | 41.7%| 48 | -11.04 | -23.0% | 34 | -8.48 | -24.9% |
| 60-65% | 13 | 61.5%| 13 | +1.13 | 8.7% | 12 | +0.53 | 4.4% |
| 65-70% | 2 | 50.0%| 2 | -0.20 | -10.0% | 2 | -0.20 | -10.0% |
| Totals | 295 | -| 295 | -18.89 | -6.4% | 111 | -10.23| -9.2%|
The overall actual Over 2.5 rate was 50.3%, closely matching the V12 model average of 50.4%.
Team Analysis
Several teams stood out for their performance relative to expected goals (xG):
- Over-performers:
- Coventry: 97 goals, xG 65.4 (+31.60 vs model), 28W/11D across 46 fixtures
- Southampton: 82 goals, xG 66.0 (+15.98 vs model), 22W/16D across 48 fixtures
- Ipswich: 80 goals, xG 66.5 (+13.53 vs model), 23W/15D across 46 fixtures
- Hull City: 73 goals, xG 61.7 (+11.27 vs model), 23W/11D across 49 fixtures
- Derby: 67 goals, xG 56.9 (+10.07 vs model), 20W/9D across 46 fixtures
- Under-performers:
- Sheffield Wednesday: 29 goals, xG 35.4 (-6.40 vs model), 2W/12D across 46 fixtures
- Watford: 53 goals, xG 56.7 (-3.73 vs model), 14W/15D across 46 fixtures
- Blackburn: 42 goals, xG 45.5 (-3.52 vs model), 13W/13D across 46 fixtures
Signal hit rates by team:
- Birmingham: 10/13 signals correct (76.9%)
- Coventry: 21/32 signals correct (65.6%)
- Millwall: 11/17 signals correct (64.7%)
- Swansea: 11/19 signals correct (57.9%)
- Hull City: 12/22 signals correct (54.5%)
- Middlesbrough: 19/37 signals correct (51.4%)
- Norwich: 10/20 signals correct (50.0%)
- Ipswich: 18/37 signals correct (48.6%)
Players to Follow
Top Scorers
- Žan Vipotnik (Swansea): 22 goals, 3 assists, 35/64 shots on target, 44 apps, 2883 mins
- Oliver McBurnie (Hull City): 17 goals, 7 assists, 39/61 shots on target, 40 apps, 3093 mins
- Haji Wright (Coventry): 17 goals, 1 assists, 37/75 shots on target, 41 apps, 2526 mins
Players Worth Tracking
- Oliver McBurnie (Hull City): 39/61 on target, 17 goals, 40 apps
- Joe Gelhardt (Hull City): 38/60 on target, 15 goals, 41 apps
- Haji Wright (Coventry): 37/75 on target, 17 goals, 41 apps
Key Takeaways
- Higher-rated signals (★★★) provided the best predictive accuracy, with home and away ★★★ signals hitting at 68.0% and 69.2%, respectively.
- Filtering to value bets significantly improved ROI, from -6.72% for all signals to +17.33% for value bets only.
- The actual BTTS rate of 56.4% slightly exceeded the V12 model average of 53.6%, indicating potential value in backing BTTS.
- Teams like Coventry and Southampton significantly over-performed relative to their xG, providing potential value in future betting markets.
This season's data underscores the importance of signal strength and value identification in achieving positive returns. BetSignals subscribers can leverage these insights to refine their betting strategies for the upcoming season.