Where the model has them
The model has Cambuur finishing around 16th in the Eredivisie this season, with a 38.32% chance of relegation and an expected points total of 36.1. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.89 indicates they are below the league average in attack, whilst their defence multiplier of 1.26 suggests a slightly above-average propensity to concede goals. Their attacking Elo of 1570 and defending Elo of 1583, both lower than most Eredivisie sides, reflect their status as a newly promoted team.
In attack
Cambuur's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.89. The key attacking player in the squad is Ilyes Hamache, who scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 27 appearances last season. He took 13 shots across those games, accounting for 44% of the team's total shot volume. Despite his contributions, Hamache's goal tally of 3 is not enough to suggest Cambuur have a proven high-volume scorer. The lack of a consistent attacking threat is a concern for a side projected to struggle this season.
In defence
Defensively, Cambuur are rated as slightly worse than the league average, with a defence strength multiplier of 1.26. The key defensive player is, again, Ilyes Hamache, who led the team in tackles won (21 in 27 appearances) and defensive actions per 90 minutes (2.58). Whilst Hamache's work without the ball is valuable, the defence multiplier of 1.26 indicates they are likely to concede more goals than most sides in the division. This could be a soft spot for the newly promoted team.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window did not materially change Cambuur's outlook according to the model. The attack multiplier remained at 0.89 and the defence multiplier stayed at 1.26. The key arrival was Ilyes Hamache, who contributed both in attack (3 goals last season) and defence (34 defensive actions). His addition did not shift the model's view on the team's strengths and weaknesses.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Cambuur's projection centre around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Their defence, whilst not disastrous, is also rated as slightly worse than average. As a newly promoted side, much of the squad is unproven at this level, adding to the risks. The combination of these factors leads the model to project a struggle for Cambuur this season, with a real chance of relegation.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ilyes Hamache | 3 | 0.11 | 11% |
| Assists | Ilyes Hamache | 1 | 0.04 | 4% |
| Shots | Ilyes Hamache | 13 | 0.48 | 44% |
| Tackles won | Ilyes Hamache | 21 | 0.78 | 56% |
| Fouls drawn | Ilyes Hamache | 7 | 0.26 | 19% |
| Fouls committed | Ilyes Hamache | 5 | 0.19 | 15% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ilyes Hamache | 2.58 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Ilyes Hamache (3g), out -
- Defence: in Ilyes Hamache (34 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._