Where the model has them
Cagliari are projected to finish 20th in the Serie A table this season, with a 55.78% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 34.2. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.77 (league average is 1.00, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack) and a defence multiplier of 1.37 (league average is 1.00, with lower numbers indicating a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1569, whilst their defending Elo is 1603.
In attack
Cagliari's attack is rated below the league average, reflected in the 0.77 attack strength multiplier. Giuseppe Aurelio, who scored 6 goals last season, is the standout attacking player. Sebastiano Esposito, with 5 assists in 35 appearances, is the main assist provider. Esposito also leads in shot volume with 41 shots in 35 games. Despite these contributions, no player emerged as a high-volume scorer last season, with Aurelio's 6 goals being the best. This lack of consistent goal-scoring is a significant weakness.
In defence
The defence multiplier of 1.37 indicates that Cagliari's defence is leakier than the league average. The defensive-actions leaders include Juan Rodriguez, who averaged 4.7 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, and Adam Obert with 4.2 per 90. These numbers suggest a solid defensive effort, but the overall multiplier shows that this hasn't translated into fewer goals conceded.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes. Giuseppe Aurelio, who scored 6 goals last season, bolsters the attack, though the net attacking output decreased with the departure of Semih Kılıçsoy (4 goals). Defensively, Raphael Kofler, known for his 100 defensive actions, strengthens the backline. Despite these changes, the attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.84 to 0.77, whilst the defence improved from 1.27 to 1.37.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks for Cagliari this season revolve around their below-average attack and slightly above-average defence. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and the reliance on a few key players for both goals and assists heightens the risk of an inconsistent offensive output. Coupled with a defence that, whilst solid in actions, still concedes more than the league average, these factors drive the model's relegation projection.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Giuseppe Aurelio | 6 | 0.18 | 18% |
| Assists | Sebastiano Esposito | 5 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Sebastiano Esposito | 41 | 1.17 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Juan Rodriguez | 34 | 2.13 | 94% |
| Fouls drawn | Yerry Mina | 36 | 1.44 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Raphael Kofler | 50 | 1.79 | 86% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Rodriguez | 4.7 | 16 |
| Adam Obert | 4.2 | 34 |
| Riyad Idrissi | 3.8 | 23 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Giuseppe Aurelio (6g), out Semih Kılıçsoy (4g)
- Defence: in Raphael Kofler (100 def actions), out Sebastiano Luperto
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._