Championship | Wednesday, 2 September 2026 | 19:00 GMT
Recent Form
Burnley
Burnley's home form shows a W/D/L record of 0/3/2 across their last five games, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8. Their last 10 games, home and away, have a W/D/L record of 0/3/7, with 9 goals scored and 23 conceded.
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's away form shows a W/D/L record of 0/2/3 across their last five games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9. Their last 10 games, home and away, have a W/D/L record of 4/3/3, with 17 goals scored and 12 conceded.
What the Numbers Say
Today's standout accumulator leg is Middlesbrough at 59% likelihood. The primary model gives Burnley a 21.5% chance of winning, a 18.6% chance of a draw, and Middlesbrough a 59.3% chance of taking the points. A second independent model agrees on the away win.
This is also a value selection, graded four stars. The market price for Middlesbrough is 2.90, whilst the model's fair odds are 1.69. That's a value edge of +72%. BetSignals' sG (signal goals) metric shows Middlesbrough with 2.44 expected goals, compared to Burnley's 1.4. The probability of Both Teams to Score is 64%, and the probability of Over 2.5 goals is 63%, indicating an open game. The model leans Middlesbrough due to their higher sG, better recent form, and stronger attacking threat.
Player Intelligence
The most striking category across both squads is shots on target per 90 minutes. Middlesbrough has a player with a topPer90 of 2.13, compared to Burnley's top of 1.084. For tackles, Middlesbrough again leads with a topPer90 of 2.118, versus Burnley's highest of 6.968. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals.