Burnley vs Aston Villa - Premier League Preview

Premier League | Sunday, 10 May 2026 | 13:00 GMT

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Burnley

Burnley have played four home games recently. The results were one draw and three losses. They scored three goals and conceded seven. Looking at the last ten games overall, Burnley won once, drew twice, and lost seven times. They scored ten goals and conceded 22.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa played four away games recently. They won none, drew one, and lost three. They scored two goals and conceded six. In the last ten games overall, Villa won five, drew one, and lost four. They scored 19 goals and conceded 11.

Why BetSignals Rates This Game

Our primary model gives Burnley a 16.6% chance of winning, a 23.9% chance of a draw, and Aston Villa a 56.4% chance of taking all three points. A second independent model also leans towards an away win, which earns this fixture a 3* signal rating. Remember, BetSignals presents the data; you make the decisions.

The data on expected goals (sG) shows Aston Villa with a significantly higher attacking threat at 2.12 sG compared to Burnley's 0.68 sG. This suggests Villa could create more scoring opportunities. The 53% probability for both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals indicates we could be in for an open game. Villa's stronger shot volume and goals per game support the model's away win lean.

Player Intelligence

When it comes to shots on target, no Burnley player reaches the threshold, whereas four Aston Villa players do. Aston Villa also leads in fouls drawn, with three players above the threshold compared to Burnley's four. Villa's higher figures in key categories back up the model's direction. Log in or sign up for free on BetSignals to dive into the full player-level data and make your own informed decisions.