Season Overview
The 2025/2026 Bundesliga season saw a total of 308 fixtures analysed, with 269 of those fixtures producing valid model signals. The overall signal hit rate for the season was 61.8%, indicating a strong performance by our predictive models.
Signal Performance
Our models demonstrated varying degrees of accuracy across different signal types and strengths. The breakdown is as follows:
Home Signals
- ★★★ signals: 23 out of 26 bets won (88.5% hit rate)
- ★★ signals: 43 out of 79 bets won (54.4% hit rate)
- ★ signals: 36 out of 60 bets won (60.0% hit rate)
Away Signals
- ★★★ signals: 14 out of 20 bets won (70.0% hit rate)
- ★★ signals: 31 out of 59 bets won (52.5% hit rate)
- ★ signals: 10 out of 25 bets won (40.0% hit rate)
The highest accuracy was observed in ★★★ signals, both at home and away, indicating that higher-confidence signals were more reliable.
Match Winner P&L
Backing Every Signal
- Bets: 169
- Win rate: 55.0%
- P&L: +2.45 units
- ROI: +1.45%
Value Bets Only (Edge > 0)
- Bets: 47
- Win rate: 38.3%
- P&L: -1.24 units
- ROI: -2.64%
Filtering to value bets did not add a meaningful edge, as evidenced by the negative P&L and ROI. Backing every signal provided a better overall performance.
BTTS by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|------------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 10 | 70.0% | 10 | +2.17 | 21.7% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 44 | 65.9% | 44 | +4.16 | 9.5% | 2 | +0.20 | 10.0% |
| 50-55% | 73 | 68.5% | 73 | +4.94 | 6.8% | 10 | +0.73 | 7.3% |
| 60-65% | 34 | 52.9% | 34 | -6.26 | -18.4% | 10 | -2.63 | -26.3% |
| 65-70% | 11 | 81.8% | 11 | +2.53 | 23.0% | 4 | +2.50 | 62.5% |
| 70%+ | 1 | 100.0%| 1 | +0.50 | 50.0% | 1 | +0.50 | 50.0% |
| Total | 173 | 61.0% | 173 | +8.04 | 4.6% | 27 | +1.30 | 4.8% |
The actual BTTS rate was 61.0%, slightly above the V12 model average of 57.4%.
Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket
| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |
|------------------|----------|-------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|
| <45% | 11 | 72.7% | 11 | +4.13 | 37.5% | 0 | - | - |
| 45-50% | 26 | 50.0% | 26 | -2.57 | -9.9% | 5 | +4.25 | 85.0% |
| 50-55% | 43 | 55.8% | 43 | -4.26 | -9.9% | 4 | -2.10 | -52.5% |
| 55-60% | 54 | 74.1% | 54 | +5.09 | 9.4% | 6 | -0.43 | -7.2% |
| 60-65% | 26 | 61.5% | 26 | -2.23 | -8.6% | 4 | -0.15 | -3.7% |
| 65-70% | 8 | 75.0% | 8 | -0.13 | -1.6% | 1 | +0.57 | 57.0% |
| 70%+ | 5 | 100.0%| 5 | +1.24 | 24.8% | 1 | +0.44 | 44.0% |
| Total | 173 | 63.0% | 173 | +1.27 | 0.7% | 21 | +2.58 | 12.3% |
The actual Over 2.5 rate was 63.0%, above the V12 model average of 55.3%.
Team Analysis
Over-Performers (Scored Above xG)
- Bayern München: 122 goals, xG 74.2 (+47.81 vs model), 28W/5D across 34 fixtures
- Bayer Leverkusen: 68 goals, xG 48.1 (+19.90 vs model), 17W/8D across 34 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 61 goals, xG 44.6 (+16.40 vs model), 11W/11D across 34 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund: 70 goals, xG 54.0 (+15.97 vs model), 22W/7D across 34 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart: 71 goals, xG 55.2 (+15.82 vs model), 18W/8D across 34 fixtures
Under-Performers (Scored Below xG)
- FC St. Pauli: 29 goals, xG 35.8 (-6.78 vs model), 6W/8D across 34 fixtures
- Werder Bremen: 37 goals, xG 40.8 (-3.79 vs model), 8W/8D across 34 fixtures
- VfL Wolfsburg: 45 goals, xG 48.0 (-2.97 vs model), 7W/10D across 36 fixtures
Signal Hit Rates by Team
- Bayern München: 28/34 signals correct (82.4%)
- RB Leipzig: 18/24 signals correct (75.0%)
- Borussia Dortmund: 15/21 signals correct (71.4%)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 4/6 signals correct (66.7%)
- 1899 Hoffenheim: 15/23 signals correct (65.2%)
- VfB Stuttgart: 16/25 signals correct (64.0%)
- FC St. Pauli: 3/5 signals correct (60.0%)
- 1.FC Köln: 3/5 signals correct (60.0%)
Bayern München had the highest signal hit rate, while FC St. Pauli and 1.FC Köln had the lowest.
Players to Follow
Top Scorers
- Harry Kane (Bayern München): 36 goals, 5 assists, 69/93 shots on target, 32 apps, 2472 mins
- Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart): 19 goals, 7 assists, 46/90 shots on target, 29 apps, 2247 mins
- Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund): 17 goals, 1 assists, 40/68 shots on target, 33 apps, 2258 mins
Top Assisters
- Michael Olise (Bayern München): 19 assists, 14 goals, 2348 mins
- Julian Ryerson (Borussia Dortmund): 15 assists, 0 goals, 2197 mins
- Luis Díaz (Bayern München): 14 assists, 15 goals, 2495 mins
Players to Watch
- Harry Kane (Bayern München): 69/93 on target, 36 goals, 32 apps
- Michael Olise (Bayern München): 51/72 on target, 14 goals, 33 apps
- Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart): 46/90 on target, 19 goals, 29 apps
- Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund): 40/68 on target, 17 goals, 33 apps
- Luis Díaz (Bayern München): 39/68 on target, 15 goals, 32 apps
- Christoph Baumgartner (RB Leipzig): 33/67 on target, 13 goals, 32 apps
Key Takeaways
- The overall signal hit rate of 61.8% indicates strong predictive performance.
- Higher-confidence signals (★★★) were more accurate than lower-confidence ones.
- Backing every signal provided a better return compared to filtering for value bets.
- Teams like Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund over-performed significantly compared to their expected goals.
- Key players like Harry Kane and Michael Olise showed excellent underlying numbers and should be closely watched in the next season.