Bologna: Serie A 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

Bologna are projected to finish 8th in the 2026-27 Serie A season, with an expected finishing position of 8.0. The model gives them a 0.56% chance of winning the title, 11.65% chance of making the top four, and a 0.63% chance of relegation. These probabilities are driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.17, which is above the league average of 1.00, and a defence strength multiplier of 1.00, which is right on the league average. The attacking Elo is 1605, and the defending Elo is 1665, putting them around the mid-table mark in terms of both attacking and defensive capability.

In attack

Bologna's attack is projected to be slightly above average, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.17. Key to this is Riccardo Orsolini, who scored 13 goals in 47 appearances last season. Roberto Piccoli, who joined this summer, contributed 7 goals last season and had 61 shots in 41 appearances. Federico Bernardeschi and Jens Odgaard also bring goal threat, with 9 and 7 goals respectively last season. The model sees this as a solid attacking unit, capable of scoring regularly but not necessarily in huge numbers.

In defence

Defensively, Bologna are projected to be right around the league average, with a defence strength multiplier of 1.00. The defensive-actions leaders last season were Tommaso Pobega with 4.49 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Oussama El Azzouzi with 4.21, and Martin Vitík with 3.94. Emil Holm also chipped in with 33 tackles won in 22 appearances. This suggests a defence that is competent but not outstanding, likely to concede a fair amount of chances but also capable of keeping things tight when needed.

What the window changed

The summer transfer window saw some key moves that have nudged Bologna's model numbers. The arrival of Roberto Piccoli, who scored 7 goals last season, has pushed the attack multiplier from 1.01 to 1.17. On the defensive side, the addition of Abdel Rahim, who had 72 defensive actions last season, has brought the defence multiplier down from 1.02 to 1.00. The departure of Santiago Castro, who scored 9 goals last season, and Remo Freuler has been offset by these new arrivals, keeping the overall model projection stable.

Weaknesses and risks

The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Bologna heading into the 2026-27 season. The main risk to their projected 8th place finish would likely come from an underperformance in attack, given their slightly above-average attack strength. If key players like Orsolini or Piccoli fail to hit their expected output, it could drag the team down. Defensively, they are right on the league average, so there's less margin for error there. Overall, the model sees Bologna as a mid-table side with a solid but not spectacular outlook.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Roberto Piccoli (7g), out Santiago Castro (9g)
• Defence: in Abdel Rahim (72 def actions), out Remo Freuler

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._