UEFA Champions League | Wednesday, 21 October 2026 | 19:00 GMT
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Bayern München
Bayern München's home record in their last 10 games is W5, D0, L0. They scored 28 goals and conceded 3 at home. Their last 5 home results were W6-1 vs RB Leipzig, W7-0 vs Union Berlin, W5-0 vs Bodo/Glimt, W5-1 vs VfB Stuttgart, and W5-1 vs 1. FC Köln. Overall in their last 10 games, Bayern München recorded W7, D3, L0, scoring 36 goals and conceding 9.
Arsenal
Arsenal's away record in their last 10 games is W4, D0, L1. They scored 5 goals and conceded 3 away. Their last 5 away results were W1-0 vs Nottingham Forest, L0-3 vs Brighton, W2-0 vs Sunderland, W1-0 vs Napoli, and W1-0 vs Aston Villa. Overall in their last 10 games, Arsenal recorded W9, D0, L1, scoring 18 goals and conceding 5.
What the Numbers Say
The primary model rates a Bayern München home win at 62%, a draw at 18%, and an Arsenal away win at 19%. This makes Bayern München the standout accumulator leg today. A second independent model also favours the home side, confirming the direction. The sG (signal goals) for Bayern München is 2.48, compared to 1.3 for Arsenal, reinforcing the home bias.
On value, the market price for a Bayern München win is 2.15, whilst the model's fair odds are 1.62. This gives a two-star value rating, indicating modest home value. The price is +33% longer than the model's fair odds, a decent edge. The BTTS probability is 61%, and the Over 2.5 goals probability is 66%, suggesting an open game. BetSignals surfaces these numbers for your analysis; the decision remains yours.
Player Intelligence
The most striking category across both squads is shots on target per 90 minutes. Bayern München has a player with 2.926 shots on target per 90, whilst Arsenal's top player is at 1.576. For tackles per 90, Bayern München leads with 2.48 compared to Arsenal's 2.711. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals and dive deeper into the data for your own analysis.