Eredivisie | Friday, 11 September 2026 | 18:00 GMT
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar's home form shows two wins, three draws, and no losses in the last five games, scoring 14 goals and conceding 9. The last five home games ended 5-2, 2-0, 3-3, 2-2, and 2-2. Overall, AZ Alkmaar has five wins, five draws, and no losses in the last 10 games, scoring 24 goals and conceding 13.
Willem II
Willem II's away form shows one loss in the last game, scoring 1 goal and conceding 4. Overall, Willem II has no wins, one draw, and three losses in the last four games, scoring 4 goals and conceding 13.
What the Numbers Say
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 75% chance to win, with a 13.2% chance of a draw and a 10.4% chance of a Willem II win. That makes AZ Alkmaar the most probable result today, and therefore the standout acca leg. A second independent model also sees the home side as the likely winner.
However, the price for AZ Alkmaar at 1.12 is shorter than the model's fair odds of 1.34, so there is no value in backing the home side on its own. The star rating is 1, meaning the market has priced it fairly or too short. This is a classic case where a likely result (75%) carries a low star (1), and both are correct. AZ Alkmaar's attacking threat is rated at 3.1 sG, compared to 1.07 for Willem II. The game is projected to be open, with a 57% chance of both teams scoring and a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals. BetSignals surfaces the numbers, and the decision is yours.
Player Intelligence
The most striking category across both teams is shots, with AZ Alkmaar's top player averaging 3.316 per 90 minutes compared to Willem II's top player at 2.5. The second most striking category is tackles, with AZ Alkmaar's top player at 3.186 per 90 and Willem II's at 3.134. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals for more data to inform your own analysis.