Where the model has them
The model has AZ Alkmaar finishing around 5th this season, with a 2.45% chance of winning the title, a 28.19% chance of breaking into the top four, and a 1.30% chance of relegation. They're expected to accumulate 52.7 points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their attacking Elo of 1616 and defending Elo of 1614. The attack strength multiplier stands at 1.11, indicating an above-average attacking threat. Conversely, the defence multiplier of 0.93 suggests a slightly below-average defensive performance.
In attack
AZ Alkmaar's attack is solid, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.11. Troy Parrott is the standout player here, having netted 23 goals in 41 appearances last season, accounting for 46% of the team's goals. His shot volume of 101 in 41 games (88% of games) shows his consistent threat. Mees de Wit chipped in with 9 assists in 45 appearances, contributing to 20% of the team's goals. Newcomer Jizz Hornkamp, who scored 10 goals last season, bolsters the attack. The top scorers in the squad are Parrott with 23 goals and 5 assists, Hornkamp with 10 goals and 1 assist, and Isak Steiner Jensen with 7 goals and 7 assists. This attacking lineup gives AZ a real punch.
In defence
Defensively, AZ Alkmaar sits just below average with a defence multiplier of 0.93. The defensive-actions leaders are Mateo Chávez with 5.94 actions per 90, Dave Kwakman with 5.31, and Billy van Duijl with 4.87. Peer Koopmeiners won 119 tackles in 44 appearances, showing his importance at the back. The addition of Kwakman, known for his defensive actions, should strengthen this area. Despite this, the model still sees the defence as a slight weak spot compared to the league average.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.08 to 1.11, thanks in part to the arrival of Jizz Hornkamp, who scored 10 goals last season. On the other hand, the departure of Sven Mijnans, who scored 17 goals, slightly offset this gain. Defensively, the arrival of Dave Kwakman, who had 61 defensive actions last season, improved the defence multiplier from 0.9 to 0.93. Mijnans' departure also impacted the defence, but Kwakman's addition helps mitigate this loss.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for AZ Alkmaar, but the slightly below-average defence multiplier of 0.93 is worth noting. If their defence can't step up, it could drag down their overall performance, despite a strong attacking unit. Keep an eye on how they manage this balance throughout the season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Troy Parrott | 23 | 0.56 | 46% |
| Assists | Mees de Wit | 9 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Shots | Troy Parrott | 101 | 2.46 | 88% |
| Tackles won | Peer Koopmeiners | 119 | 2.7 | 96% |
| Fouls drawn | Weslley Patati | 53 | 1.47 | 75% |
| Fouls committed | Peer Koopmeiners | 56 | 1.27 | 75% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mateo Chávez | 5.94 | 29 |
| Dave Kwakman | 5.31 | 22 |
| Billy van Duijl | 4.87 | 10 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Jizz Hornkamp (10g), out Sven Mijnans (17g)
- Defence: in Dave Kwakman (61 def actions), out Sven Mijnans
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._