Atalanta: Serie A 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

Atalanta are projected to finish 7th in Serie A this season. The model gives them a 3.04% chance of winning the title, a 34.15% chance of making the top four, and a 0.04% chance of relegation. They are expected to finish with 64.2 points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, alongside their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier stands at 1.18, indicating an attack stronger than the league average. Their defence multiplier is 0.8, signalling a defence that concedes fewer goals than average. Their attacking Elo is 1646, whilst their defensive Elo is 1704, suggesting a team more likely to keep things tight at the back.

In attack

Atalanta's attack, with a strength multiplier of 1.18, is above average. Gianluca Scamacca was their top scorer last season with 13 goals in 33 appearances. Nikola Krstović chipped in with 11 goals and 5 assists, whilst Charles De Ketelaere provided 7 assists in 38 games. Krstović also led the shot volume with 91 shots in 44 appearances. The attacking depth is there, with Mario Pašalić adding 6 goals and 5 assists. This firepower should see them score regularly this season.

In defence

Defensively, Atalanta have a strength multiplier of 0.8, which is below the league average and indicates a solid backline. Giorgio Scalvini leads the defensive actions with 4.93 per 90 minutes, followed by Honest Ahanor with 4.56 and Isak Hien with 4.27. Éderson won 83 tackles in 38 appearances, showing their midfield's tenacity. This defensive setup, combined with their low defence multiplier, suggests they will be tough to break down.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. Gianluca Gaetano, who scored 2 goals last season, arrived to bolster the attack, pushing the attack multiplier from 1.13 to 1.18. Ademola Lookman, who scored 9 goals last season, departed, but the model still sees the attack as stronger. Defensively, Thomas Kristensen joined, bringing 65 defensive actions, which helped lower the defence multiplier from 0.82 to 0.8. Berat Djimsiti left, but the defensive solidity remains.

Weaknesses and risks

The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Atalanta. Their balanced attack and defence, coupled with a strong squad and minimal injury concerns, mean there are few obvious risks to their projected 7th place finish. Keep an eye on their away form, as that could be the deciding factor in whether they sneak into the top four or drop a few places.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Gianluca Gaetano (2g), out Ademola Lookman (9g)
• Defence: in Thomas Kristensen (65 def actions), out Berat Djimsiti

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._