Where the model has them
The model projects AS Roma to finish 2nd in Serie A this season, with a 15.88% chance of taking the title and a 73.67% chance of securing a top-four finish. The expected points tally is 72.5, driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.32 (above average) and a defence strength multiplier of 0.67 (well below average). The attacking Elo stands at 1675, whilst the defensive Elo is 1748. These numbers reflect a side that scores more and concedes less than the league average, a potent combination for a high finish.
In attack
AS Roma's attack is a clear strength, with a multiplier of 1.32. Donyell Malen was the top scorer last season with 19 goals in 46 appearances, contributing 30% of the team's goals. Paulo Dybala provided 7 assists in 26 games, though his injury record is a concern. Malen also led in shot volume with 83 attempts. The arrival of Santiago Castro, who scored 9 goals last season, strengthens the attacking options. With Malen, Castro, and Lorenzo Pellegrini (7g/4a last season), Roma have a potent forward line.
In defence
Defensively, Roma are solid with a strength multiplier of 0.67. Jan Ziółkowski leads the way in defensive actions per 90 minutes at 5.37, followed by Daniele Ghilardi at 5.17 and Neil El Aynaoui at 4.17. Bryan Cristante won 81 tackles last season, showing the midfield's contribution to defence. The defence is a clear strength, with the model seeing no weaknesses here.
What the window changed
The summer window saw minor tweaks to Roma's model numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.3 to 1.32, thanks to the arrival of Santiago Castro, who scored 9 goals last season. Evan Ferguson, who scored 5 goals, departed but his impact was less significant. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 0.69 to 0.67 with the arrival of Konstantinos Koulierakis, who had 96 defensive actions last season. Zeki Çelik's departure had a smaller impact. These changes suggest a slightly stronger Roma this season.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees no significant weaknesses in Roma's squad. The main risk to their high projected finish is the reliance on key players like Malen and Dybala. Injuries to these players could disrupt the team's balance. Otherwise, Roma look well-positioned to challenge for the top spots this season, with a strong attack and a solid defence.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Donyell Malen | 19 | 0.41 | 30% |
| Assists | Paulo Dybala | 7 | 0.27 | 23% |
| Shots | Donyell Malen | 83 | 1.8 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Bryan Cristante | 81 | 1.84 | 80% |
| Fouls drawn | Lorenzo Pellegrini | 51 | 1.59 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Gianluca Mancini | 91 | 2.02 | 87% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Ziółkowski | 5.37 | 24 |
| Daniele Ghilardi | 5.17 | 26 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | 4.17 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Santiago Castro (9g), out Evan Ferguson (5g)
- Defence: in Konstantinos Koulierakis (96 def actions), out Zeki Çelik
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._