Where the model has them
The model has Arminia Bielefeld finishing around 7th this season, with a 2.04% chance of winning the title, a 20.05% shot at the top four, and a 4.99% risk of relegation. They're expected to pick up 48.9 points, which lands them comfortably in mid-table. This projection is driven by their attack and defence multipliers and their Elo ratings. Their attack multiplier of 1.01 suggests an attack that's just a smidgen above average, whilst their defence multiplier of 0.94 indicates a defence that's slightly stronger than the league norm. Their attacking Elo of 1530 and defending Elo of 1536 are both pretty much bang on the league average, reflecting a balanced side with no glaring weaknesses.
In attack
Arminia Bielefeld's attack is nothing spectacular, but it's solid. The 1.01 multiplier tells you that. The key man up front is Joel Grodowski, who banged in 12 goals last season in 31 appearances, scoring in 36% of his games. Tim Handwerker is the main assist provider, with 7 assists in 23 appearances, contributing in 26% of his games. Roberts Uldriķis has a knack for getting shots away, with 19 in just 16 appearances, showing up in 63% of games. The top scorers in the squad are Grodowski with 12 goals and 2 assists, Monju Momuluh with 5 goals and 6 assists, and Handwerker with 4 goals and 7 assists. It's not a barnstorming attack, but it's reliable.
In defence
Defensively, Bielefeld are a bit stronger, as shown by their 0.94 multiplier. The defensive-actions leaders are Arne Sicker with 4.26 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Tim Handwerker with 4.09 per 90, and Maximilian Bauer with 3.84 per 90. Stefano Russo won 38 tackles in 26 appearances, turning up in 85% of games. This defensive solidity, coupled with a slightly above-average attack, is why the model sees them finishing mid-table.
What the window changed
The transfer window didn't shake things up too much for Bielefeld. The attack multiplier nudged down from 1.02 to 1.01, whilst the defence multiplier improved from 1.02 to 0.94. Henri Koudossou came in and brings a bit of everything: 2 goals and 42 defensive actions last season. He's the only notable addition. On the outs, Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee, who scored 5 goals last season, has left. Defensively, Mael Corboz is gone. The net effect is a slightly stronger defence and a marginally weaker attack, which is reflected in the updated multipliers.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any glaring weaknesses for Bielefeld. Their attack is just about average, their defence is a bit stronger than average, and they've got a balanced squad with no standout soft spots. The main risk to the projection is probably inconsistency, which can creep in for sides that are solid but not spectacular. Keep an eye on their form throughout the season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Joel Grodowski | 12 | 0.39 | 36% |
| Assists | Tim Handwerker | 7 | 0.3 | 26% |
| Shots | Roberts Uldriķis | 19 | 1.19 | 63% |
| Tackles won | Stefano Russo | 38 | 1.46 | 85% |
| Fouls drawn | Monju Momuluh | 62 | 2.21 | 93% |
| Fouls committed | Roberts Uldriķis | 17 | 1.06 | 75% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Arne Sicker | 4.26 | 16 |
| Tim Handwerker | 4.09 | 23 |
| Maximilian Bauer | 3.84 | 16 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Henri Koudossou (2g), out Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee (5g)
- Defence: in Henri Koudossou (42 def actions), out Mael Corboz
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._