La Liga | Tuesday, 15 September 2026 | 18:00 GMT
Recent Form
Alaves
Alaves' home record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses across their last 7 games at Estadio Mendizorrotza. They scored 15 goals and conceded 9. Their home scorelines were: 5-2 vs Osasuna, 1-0 vs Villarreal, 3-0 vs Getafe, 1-2 vs Rayo Vallecano, 1-0 vs Barcelona, 2-4 vs Athletic Club, and 2-1 vs Mallorca. Over their last 10 games overall (home and away), Alaves has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 11.
Valencia
Valencia's away form shows 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 4 away fixtures. They scored 6 goals and conceded 7. Their away scorelines were: 0-1 vs Sevilla, 1-3 vs Deportivo La Coruna, 4-3 vs Real Sociedad, and 1-0 vs Athletic Club. Over their last 10 games overall (home and away), Valencia has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 10 goals and conceding 17.
What the Numbers Say
The primary model rates an Alaves home win at 74% likelihood, making this the standout acca leg today. The model's win probabilities are: home 74.2%, draw 17.4%, away 8.1%. Alaves' strong home form, with 5 wins in their last 7 games, and Valencia's poor away record, with just 2 wins in their last 4, drive this projection. A second independent model agrees on the home direction. Alaves also leads in expected goals (sG) with 2.17 compared to Valencia's 0.53.
Turning to the price, the market odds for an Alaves win are 1.95, whilst the model's fair odds sit at 1.35. This 2-star HOME value means there is modest value in backing Alaves at the current price. The value edge is +44.6%, meaning the market price is longer than the model's fair odds. This fixture offers both a high likelihood of an Alaves win and a small value edge. The game is projected to be open, with a 42% chance of both teams scoring and a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals. BetSignals surfaces these numbers; the decision on how to use them is always yours.
Player Intelligence
The most striking category across both squads is tackles, with Alaves leading the way. Their top tackler records 5.357 tackles per 90 minutes, significantly higher than Valencia's top tackler at 3.117 per 90. The second most striking category is shots on target, where Alaves again leads with a top performer at 2.679 per 90, compared to Valencia's 1.682 per 90. Log in or create a free account to see the full player-level breakdown on BetSignals for even more data-driven insights.