Ajax: Eredivisie 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

The model has Ajax finishing around 2nd place next season, with a 10.31% chance of taking the title and a 59.78% probability of securing a top-four spot. Relegation is a non-issue at 0.15%, and the expected points tally is 59.4. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier of 1.2 (league average is 1.00) indicates a potent offensive unit, whilst the defence multiplier of 0.81 (lower than 1.00) suggests a solid backline that concedes fewer goals than the average team.

In attack

Ajax's attack is a clear strength, reflected in the 1.2 multiplier. Mika Godts is the standout performer, with 16 goals and 14 assists in 41 appearances last season. His shot volume of 76 across those games shows he's central to their offensive output. Julian Brandt, who joined this summer, adds another dimension with his 10 goals last season. Oscar Gloukh also chipped in with 9 goals and 5 assists, making this a potent trio up front. The model sees this attacking unit as above average, capable of consistently finding the net.

In defence

Defensively, Ajax holds a 0.81 multiplier, indicating a robust backline. Lucas Rosa leads the way with 91 tackles won in 31 appearances, averaging 5.48 defensive actions per 90 minutes. Jorthy Mokio and Youri Baas also contribute significantly, with 5.18 and 4.19 defensive actions per 90 minutes respectively. This defensive solidity, combined with the attacking strength, forms a balanced unit that the model rates highly.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier rose slightly from 1.17 to 1.2, largely thanks to the arrival of Julian Brandt, who scored 10 goals last season. On the other hand, the departure of Wout Weghorst, who netted 9 goals, was offset by Brandt's addition. Defensively, the multiplier dipped from 0.82 to 0.81, a minor improvement. Daley Blind's arrival, with his 114 defensive actions last season, strengthens the backline, whilst the loss of Kenneth Taylor had a marginal impact. Overall, the transfers have marginally improved both ends of the pitch.

Weaknesses and risks

The model doesn't flag any significant weaknesses for Ajax. Their balanced attack and defence, coupled with key player performances and transfer window moves, suggest a well-rounded squad. The main risk to their projection would be if key players like Mika Godts or Julian Brandt underperform, but the model currently sees them as reliable contributors.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Julian Brandt (10g), out Wout Weghorst (9g)
• Defence: in Daley Blind (114 def actions), out Kenneth Taylor

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._