Where the model has them
AC Milan's projected finish is 6th in Serie A this season. The model gives them a 3.12% chance of winning the title, a 34.24% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 0.01% chance of relegation. They're expected to finish with 64.3 points. The attack strength multiplier is 1.21 (league average is 1.00), meaning their attack is slightly above average. The defence multiplier is 0.82 (league average is 1.00), indicating a below-average defence that concedes fewer goals. Their attacking Elo is 1657, whilst their defending Elo is 1691.
In attack
AC Milan's attack is stronger than their defence, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.21. Rafael Leão led the team in goals last season with 9 in 28 appearances, whilst Samuel Chukwueze provided 4 assists in 23 games. Alphadjo Cissè had the highest shot volume with 37 in 22 appearances. The top scorers in the squad were Rafael Leão (9 goals, 3 assists), Christian Pulišić (8 goals, 4 assists), and Gonçalo Ramos (8 goals, 1 assist). Despite this, the model sees no proven high-volume scorer in the squad, with Leão’s 9 goals being the best last season.
In defence
Defensively, AC Milan's strength multiplier is 0.82, indicating a slightly below-average defence. The defensive-actions leaders last season were Fikayo Tomori with 4.11 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Christian Comotto with 3.88, and Alexis Saelemaekers with 3.46. Saelemaekers also won 72 tackles in 34 appearances. This suggests a solid but not exceptional defensive unit.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in the model’s numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.18 to 1.21, driven by the arrival of Gonçalo Ramos, who scored 8 goals last season. On the defensive side, the multiplier improved slightly from 0.84 to 0.82 with the arrival of Filippo Terracciano, who contributed 111 defensive actions. The departure of Zachary Athekame, who scored 2 goals and contributed defensively, had a minor impact.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to AC Milan's projection is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. With Rafael Leão as the top goal scorer last season at just 9 goals, the model sees this as a significant weakness. If they fail to improve their goal-scoring output, it could drag their points total down, potentially affecting their position in the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Rafael Leão | 9 | 0.32 | 29% |
| Assists | Samuel Chukwueze | 4 | 0.17 | 17% |
| Shots | Alphadjo Cissè | 37 | 1.68 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Alexis Saelemaekers | 72 | 2.12 | 88% |
| Fouls drawn | Adrien Rabiot | 52 | 1.79 | 93% |
| Fouls committed | Alphadjo Cissè | 26 | 1.18 | 73% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Fikayo Tomori | 4.11 | 33 |
| Christian Comotto | 3.88 | 28 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | 3.46 | 34 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Gonçalo Ramos (8g), out Zachary Athekame (2g)
- Defence: in Filippo Terracciano (111 def actions), out Zachary Athekame
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._