Season Overview

The 2025/2026 season of the 2. Bundesliga saw a comprehensive analysis of 306 fixtures, with valid model signals identified in 245 of those matches. The overall signal hit rate for the season was 58.2%, indicating a relatively strong performance by the predictive models.

Signal Performance

The model's signals were broken down by home/draw/away outcomes and rated by their predictive strength (★★★, ★★, ★). Here’s the breakdown:

- ★★★: 7 bets, 5 wins (71.4% hit rate), 1 draw

- ★★: 86 bets, 50 wins (58.1% hit rate), 16 draws

- ★: 72 bets, 41 wins (56.9% hit rate), 14 draws

- Overall: 96/165 (58.2% hit rate)

- ★★: 47 bets, 23 wins (48.9% hit rate), 12 draws

- ★: 33 bets, 11 wins (33.3% hit rate), 11 draws

- Overall: 34/80 (42.5% hit rate)

The highest hit rates were observed in the ★★★ home signals, while ★★★ away signals were less successful. Overall, home signals performed better than away signals.

Match Winner P&L

Two approaches were tested for match winner bets: backing every signal with available odds and backing only value bets (edge > 0).

- Bets: 130

- Wins: 61

- Win rate: 46.9%

- P&L: -7.23 units

- ROI: -5.56%

- Bets: 27

- Wins: 9

- Win rate: 33.3%

- P&L: -0.17 units

- ROI: -0.63%

- Max win streak: 4

- Max loss streak: 9

Filtering to value bets did not significantly improve the overall profitability, suggesting that backing every signal might be the more prudent approach.

BTTS by Probability Bracket

A detailed breakdown of the Both Teams to Score (BTTS) bets by probability bracket is as follows:

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 6 | 66.7%| 6 | +0.81 | 13.5% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 38 | 68.4%| 38 | +4.13 | 10.9% | 0 | - | - |

| 50-55% | 61 | 62.3%| 61 | -1.29 | -2.1% | 5 | +2.20 | 44.0% |

| 55-60% | 43 | 58.1%| 43 | -4.66 | -10.8% | 8 | -3.08 | -38.5% |

| 60-65% | 5 | 60.0%| 5 | -0.59 | -11.8% | 1 | +0.57 | 57.0% |

| 65-70% | 0 | 0% | 0 | - | - | 0 | - | - |

| TOTALS | 153 | 58.8%| 153 | -1.60 | -1.0% | 14 | -0.31 | -2.2% |

The overall actual BTTS rate was 58.8%, slightly above the V12 model average of 57.6%.

Over 2.5 by Probability Bracket

Here’s the breakdown for Over 2.5 goals by probability bracket:

| Bracket | Fixtures | Hit% | Back All Bets | Back All P&L | Back All ROI | Value Bets | Value P&L | Value ROI |

|--------------|----------|------|---------------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----------|

| <45% | 4 | 75.0%| 4 | +1.17 | 29.3% | 0 | - | - |

| 45-50% | 23 | 60.9%| 23 | +1.76 | 7.7% | 1 | -1.00 | -100.0% |

| 50-55% | 48 | 58.3%| 48 | -2.70 | -5.6% | 3 | +0.91 | 30.3% |

| 55-60% | 40 | 65.0%| 40 | +1.95 | 4.9% | 8 | -1.04 | -13.0% |

| 60-65% | 32 | 40.6%| 32 | -11.86 | -37.1% | 11 | +0.24 | 2.2% |

| 65-70% | 6 | 50.0%| 6 | -1.45 | -24.2% | 3 | -1.25 | -41.7% |

| TOTALS | 153 | 57.2%| 153 | -11.13 | -7.3% | 26 | -2.14 | -8.2% |

The actual Over 2.5 rate was 57.2%, slightly above the V12 model average of 55.6%.

Team Analysis

Several teams over-performed or under-performed relative to their expected goals (xG):

- SV Elversberg: 64 goals (xG 46.8)

- Hannover 96: 60 goals (xG 46.3)

- SC Paderborn 07: 59 goals (xG 48.4)

- Arminia Bielefeld: 52 goals (xG 41.9)

- Dynamo Dresden: 54 goals (xG 44.5)

- Fortuna Düsseldorf: 32 goals (xG 36.7)

- Eintracht Braunschweig: 36 goals (xG 38.5)

- Preußen Münster: 38 goals (xG 37.6)

- Karlsruher SC: 100.0% (6/6)

- FC Schalke 04: 70.0% (14/20)

- SV Elversberg: 66.7% (14/21)

- Eintracht Braunschweig: 60.0% (3/5)

- SC Paderborn 07: 56.5% (13/23)

- 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 56.3% (9/16)

- Hertha BSC: 53.8% (7/13)

- 1. FC Nürnberg: 53.8% (7/13)

Players to Follow

Several standout performers in terms of goal scoring and assists:

- Noel Futkeu (19 goals, 5 assists)

- Mateusz Żukowski (17 goals, 3 assists)

- Isac Lidberg (17 goals, 3 assists)

- Filip Bilbija (15 goals, 3 assists)

- Marvin Wanitzek (14 goals, 5 assists)

- Cédric Itten (14 goals, 3 assists)

- Benjamin Källman (14 goals, 1 assist)

- Kenan Karaman (14 goals, 5 assists)

- Fabian Reese (13 assists)

- Barış Atik (11 assists)

- Marco Richter (9 assists)

- Branimir Hrgota (9 assists)

- Alexander Bernhardsson (9 assists)

- Tom Zimmerschied (9 assists)

- Moussa Sylla (41/68 on target, 7 goals)

- Marvin Wanitzek (39/66 on target, 14 goals)

- Mateusz Żukowski (35/63 on target, 17 goals)

- Cédric Itten (35/65 on target, 14 goals)

- Fabian Reese (34/75 on target, 10 goals)

- Isac Lidberg (32/54 on target, 17 goals)

Key Takeaways