Where the model has them
The model sees 1. FC Nürnberg finishing around 11th in the 2. Bundesliga this season. The title is a 0.93% chance, top four 11.84%, and relegation 9.79%. Expected points are 46.0. This is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.01 (league average is 1.00, higher means stronger) and a defence multiplier of 1.04 (league average is 1.00, lower means stronger, concedes fewer). Their attacking Elo is 1533, whilst their defending Elo is 1534.
In attack
The attack strength multiplier of 1.01 shows that Nürnberg's attack is right around the league average. Mohamed Ali Zoma is the key man up front with 14 goals in 28 appearances last season, contributing 39% of the team's goals. Julian Justvan provided 8 assists in 32 games, whilst Zoma also chipped in with 4 assists. Zoma led the shot volume with 40 in 28 appearances. The arrival of Rayan Ghrieb, who scored 4 goals last season, should add some more firepower.
In defence
The defence multiplier of 1.04 shows a slightly stronger-than-average defence. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Mikayil Faye with 5.15, Giannis Masouras with 4.65, and Adam Markhiev with 3.9. Markhiev won 60 tackles in 26 appearances last season, a solid contribution. The defence looks solid, if unspectacular.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes. The attack multiplier moved from 0.97 to 1.01, and the defence from 0.96 to 1.04. Rayan Ghrieb arrived to add some attacking threat, scoring 4 goals last season. The big departure was Luka Lochoshvili, who contributed 5 goals last term. Defensively, Giannis Masouras came in and made 35 defensive actions last season, a solid addition. Lochoshvili's departure leaves a gap, but the net effect is a stronger defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees no major weaknesses for Nürnberg this season. The attack is average, the defence is slightly above average. The main risk is probably over-reliance on Zoma for goals, but with Ghrieb's addition, that is somewhat mitigated. The defence looks solid enough to keep them clear of the drop zone, and with 46 points expected, an 11th place finish looks fair.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Mohamed Ali Zoma | 14 | 0.5 | 39% |
| Assists | Julian Justvan | 8 | 0.25 | 22% |
| Shots | Mohamed Ali Zoma | 40 | 1.43 | 71% |
| Tackles won | Adam Markhiev | 60 | 2.31 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Mohamed Ali Zoma | 58 | 2.07 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Javier Fernandez | 14 | 1.75 | 88% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mikayil Faye | 5.15 | 9 |
| Giannis Masouras | 4.65 | 9 |
| Adam Markhiev | 3.9 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Rayan Ghrieb (4g), out Luka Lochoshvili (5g)
- Defence: in Giannis Masouras (35 def actions), out Luka Lochoshvili
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._