Where the model has them
The model has 1. FC Magdeburg finishing around 15th in the 2. Bundesliga this season. The chances of them winning the title are 0.19%, making a top-four finish 3.68% likely. The relegation probability stands at 26.36%, with expected points at 40.6. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the attack multiplier of 1.02 (1.00 is the league average, higher means stronger) and the defence multiplier of 1.25 (1.00 is average, lower means stronger). Their attacking Elo is 1544 and defending Elo is 1532, both slightly below the mid-table range.
In attack
Magdeburg's attack is just about average, with a strength multiplier of 1.02. Mateusz Żukowski is the standout player here, scoring 17 goals in 21 appearances, accounting for 52% of their games last season. He also led in shot volume with 63 shots in 21 games, showing he's a key man in the final third. Barış Atik chipped in with 11 assists in 33 appearances, contributing to 27% of their games. Despite these contributions, the attack is only slightly above average, which limits their potential to climb the table.
In defence
On the defensive side, Magdeburg sits slightly above average with a defence multiplier of 1.25. This is higher than the league average, indicating a leakier backline. The defensive-actions leaders include Luka Hyrylainen with 4.32 actions per 90 minutes, Falko Michel with 3.84, and Paul Jaeckel with 3.38. Jaeckel also won 39 tackles in 27 appearances. Whilst these numbers show effort, the defence remains a soft spot, making them vulnerable to conceding goals.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier dropped from 1.04 to 1.02 following the arrival of Moritz-Broni Kwarteng, who scored 2 goals last season, and the departure of Rayan Ghrieb, who netted 4 goals. Defensively, the arrival of Anselmo Garcia McNulty, who had 98 defensive actions last season, improved the defence multiplier from 1.1 to 1.25. The departure of Marcus Mathisen slightly weakened the backline. These changes have tightened the defence but slightly weakened the attack.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Magdeburg's projection lies in their defence. With a defence multiplier of 1.25, they are more likely to concede goals than the average team. This leakiness, combined with only a slightly above-average attack, means they'll struggle to outscore their opponents consistently. If their defence doesn't improve, they could find themselves battling near the relegation zone, despite having some decent attacking options.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Mateusz Żukowski | 17 | 0.81 | 52% |
| Assists | Barış Atik | 11 | 0.33 | 27% |
| Shots | Mateusz Żukowski | 63 | 3 | 95% |
| Tackles won | Paul Jaeckel | 39 | 1.44 | 78% |
| Fouls drawn | Barış Atik | 51 | 1.55 | 79% |
| Fouls committed | Falko Michel | 43 | 1.48 | 72% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Hyrylainen | 4.32 | 8 |
| Falko Michel | 3.84 | 29 |
| Paul Jaeckel | 3.38 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Moritz-Broni Kwarteng (2g), out Rayan Ghrieb (4g)
- Defence: in Anselmo Garcia McNulty (98 def actions), out Marcus Mathisen
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._